Tin Midday Review, August 10, 2026
Today, the tin markets in China and overseas consolidated after retreating from their price centers. The most-traded SHFE tin sn2609 contract opened at 436,000 yuan/mt, shot up to 436,470 yuan/mt during last Friday's night session before encountering resistance above, and then fluctuated lower in the session as funds took profits and exited positions. It hit a low of 425,230 yuan/mt and ended the morning session at 426,790 yuan/mt, down 1.34% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Open interest dropped sharply by 6,317 lots to 51,500 lots. On the LME, the three-month tin contract was currently at $55,530/mt, edging up 0.52%.
Macro front:
(1) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that in July, affected by international imported factors, the consumer price index (CPI) edged down 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY. Overall, China's CPI maintained a mild upward trend.
(2) US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, the first drop since February; the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025.
Spot side, today's market transactions showed signs of recovery. As futures prices eased back from above 430,000 yuan/mt, purchase willingness from downstream and end-user enterprises was partly released. Most suppliers reported that inquiry and order placement volumes increased compared to earlier periods, and some transactions were already concluded during the morning session.
Overall, the market is currently in a tug-of-war between longs and shorts triggered by weak non-farm payrolls data. The surprisingly weak non-farm data significantly boosted expectations for liquidity easing, but market performance was markedly divergent: precious metals directly traded on "rate cut and safe-haven attributes" and strengthened; for strongly cyclical industrial metals such as tin, the weak non-farm data also implies that the real economy and end-use demand face risks of weakening or recession. Market concerns that worsening employment will spill over into the real economy, thereby suppressing actual consumption demand for industrial metals. Last Friday's night session, SHFE tin shot up to above 436,000 yuan/mt on liquidity optimism before encountering resistance, with some funds rotating into other sectors or taking profits. SHFE tin open interest slid from its high to 51,500 lots, and the exit of funds also dragged the price center lower for consolidation. It is expected that in the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract will consolidate, with the price center possibly facing a slight downward correction. Going forward, it is necessary to closely watch whether the overseas liquidity theme can transmit to the industrial metals sector and the sustainability of spot demand at the current price range.
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