US Dollar Fluctuations Dominate Futures Fluctuations, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates in the Morning [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary for Aug 7, 2026

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2609) consolidated on a subdued note around its center after opening. Subsequently, it edged up amid fund positioning to fluctuate around the 434,000 yuan/mt level, closing the morning session at 434,040 yuan/mt, down a marginal 0.30% from the previous trading day’s settlement price. On the LME side, three-month tin futures drifted higher during the session, currently trading at $56,420/mt, up 0.42%.

On the macro front:

(1) Trump stated that the Hormuz Strait agreement has not been reached, but he considered the strait to be somewhat open, and he expects the conflict with Iran to end soon. However, Iran is advancing legislation on navigation rules for the Hormuz Strait, aiming to ban vessels from the US, Israel, and other hostile nations from passing through. The conflicting statements indicate that geopolitical wrangling persists.

(2) Fed official Musalem publicly stated that the likelihood of inflation remaining above target has increased, and he revealed that he favored a rate hike at the recent FOMC meeting. On the economic data front, US private payrolls added only 44,000 jobs in July, according to ADP, hitting a new low for the year and falling short of expectations, indicating the labour market is cooling. However, salary for job switchers surged 7% YoY, indicating persistent structural tightness in the labour market. Currently, the market is closely watching the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. If the data aligns, it will provide statistical backing for the Fed to stay focused on combating inflation.

(3) Fed official Musalem publicly stated that the likelihood of inflation remaining above target has increased, and he revealed that he favored a rate hike at the recent FOMC meeting.

On the spot market side, as futures prices rebounded, the spot market remained overall sluggish. Downstream enterprises and end-users remain cautious, preferring to place orders at low-price levels and make just-in-time procurement. This, combined with some clients having transacted small spot volumes yesterday afternoon and the approaching weekend, further reduced downstream purchasing willingness. Overall orders dwindled, and the market lacked substantial real-effort trades.

Overall, the current tin market primarily fluctuates around dollar-logic, with futures mired in a push-and-pull state where “weakened fundamentals and fund sentiment mutually restrain each other.” On one hand, persistently sluggish spot trades and weakening real demand cap the upside room for prices. On the other, complex overseas macro data (such as ADP and the upcoming non-farm payrolls) trigger dollar fluctuations, continuously impacting sentiment towards commodities. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a pattern of wild swings.