SMM’s 10:00 a.m. Ag (T+D) fixing on the Shanghai Gold Exchange today: 15,428 yuan/kg; premiums ranged from TD-5 to +5 yuan/kg, averaging 0 yuan/kg.
On the macro front, US seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, the first decline since February; the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025. The unexpected decline in nonfarm payrolls, coupled with persistent US dollar weakness, sent spot gold soaring by $100 to $4,342/oz, a seven-week high, while silver gained 3.36% in sympathy. With the central bank increasing gold holdings for 21 consecutive months, the short-term bullish trend remains clear, and precious metals are expected to consolidate on a strong note. However, the tightening cycle has yet to reverse, and US-Iran tensions remain volatile. This week, market participants will watch for further guidance from CPI data.
In the spot market, rising silver prices further dampened downstream demand, with buyers leaning towards negotiated purchases. The morning spot-futures price spread narrowed slightly; traders showed strong selling interest with active offer-making, while smelters mostly held prices firm, holding back from selling. Overall transaction prices edged down, leaning toward parity to slight discounts. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly concentrated around parity against TD to +5 yuan/kg; some standard-grade cargoes in Shenzhen were concentrated around slight discounts to parity. Today’s premiums for SHFE most-traded 2610 silver futures contract were quoted at discounts of 65-45 yuan/kg in the market.
Overall, precious metals are expected to extend their slight rebound early this week, but lingering tightening expectations may cap upside room. On the spot market side, sell-side pressure mounted as silver prices climbed, with overall transactions skewed toward the lower end.
