ARM to Invest $840M in Bokoni Platinum Restart, Raising Cash Flow Concerns Despite Market Potential

Published: Aug 7, 2026 21:32

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African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) plans to reopen Bokoni Platinum in South Africa with R15.2 billion in investment over seven years, targeting annual PGM production of up to 400,000 ounces from around 2030. The project follows a new feasibility study and a previous R2.2 billion impairment in ARM’s 2025 financial year.

The restart has raised investor concerns over capital intensity and near-term cash generation, particularly if ARM also proceeds with the Two Rivers Merensky project. RMB Morgan Stanley estimates that funding both projects could push ARM into negative free cash flow for two to three years. ARM shares reportedly fell sharply following the Bokoni announcement.

However, the project could benefit from improving PGM market fundamentals. South African PGM production is declining while renewed automotive demand, supported by slower-than-expected EV adoption, could strengthen prices. ARM entered the project with a strong balance sheet, including R9.5 billion in net cash at end-June.

Bokoni's restart could add significant future PGM supply, but its high capital requirements and challenging mining history create execution and cash-flow risks for ARM.

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