Bulls take profits ahead of nonfarm payrolls; SHFE tin 2609 night session closes at 431,080 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Morning Report]

Futures
LME: LME three-month tin closed at $56,095/mt in electronic trading on August 6, down $623 or 1.10%. In after-hours trading (August 7, 01:56), it was quoted further at $56,185/mt, down $815 or 1.43%, with a high of $57,015 and a low of $55,900. The previous session’s breakout above $57,000 was confirmed as a false breakout, pulling back to around $56,000 to find support anew.
China (August 6 night session → August 7 morning session): The SHFE tin 2609 night session (August 7, 01:00) closed at 431,080 yuan/mt, down 4,270 or 0.98%, after opening at 433,000, with a high of 433,280 and a low of 429,030, and open interest at 58,275 lots. The SHFE tin weighted index fell 1% in tandem, with total open interest at around 104,000 lots. August 7 morning session reference: The 2609 contract opens in the 430,000–433,000 yuan/mt range, the 430,000 round number retreating from “strong support” to a “resistance level.” If the night session low of 429,000 is breached again, it will look back to 425,000 (the average cost area of August 4).
Inventory in Three Dimensions:
• LME tin inventory fell to 5,795 mt on August 6, down 55 mt day-on-day (5,850 mt on August 5), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at around 13.5%. Deliverable supply outside China remains historically very low;
• SHFE tin weekly inventory stood at 5,286 mt, down 170 mt WoW, and combined exchange tin inventory (LME + SHFE) fell below 11,300 mt;


Macro: ADP Data Disappoints vs. Jobless Claims Resilience
(1) Initial jobless claims for the week of August 6 came in at 199,000, below the expected 202,000 and the prior 198,000. The four-week moving average fell to 198,800, the lowest since September 2022; however, continuing claims rose to 1.801 million from the prior 1.782 million—indicating a “low hiring, low firing” stagflationary structure persists.
(2) The ADP figure of just 44,000, a big miss, clashes with the resilient jobless claims of 199,000. These two conflicting leading indicators put tonight’s nonfarm payrolls in the position of the “final arbiter” on whether to hike in September:
• Market consensus (Reuters/Dow Jones/WSJ): July payrolls increase 83,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, average hourly earnings +0.3% MoM;
• Bearish: Deutsche Bank 65,000, Goldman Sachs 75,000; Bullish: Barclays around 100,000.
(3) CME FedWatch: The probability of a 25bp rate hike in September has swung back to the 48%–52% range from around 54% in the previous session. If nonfarm payrolls come in ≤65,000 (Deutsche Bank scenario) → the probability falls back below 35%, and SHFE tin prices will challenge 435,000 in the night session; if ≥100,000 (Barclays scenario) → the probability returns above 65%, confirming this round’s top above 430,000.
(4) The deleveraging of Asian tech stocks is not over: On August 6, South Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung remained under pressure, A-share semiconductor chain showed divergence, and tin’s “AI solder alpha” was dragged down in the short term by tech deleveraging—this was also one of the contributing factors to the pullback in the night session.
Fundamentals: The duration of the Yinman suspension is still undetermined, and the visible supply gap has changed from a “sure thing” to a “suspense.”
(1) The latest statement from Yinman Mining (as of the August 6 interaction): Xingye Silver & Tin explicitly replied—the mining system and the beneficiation tailings system have both been shut down, the cause of the accident and the cause of death are still under investigation, the duration of the shutdown cannot be determined, and the impact of this shutdown on current period and full-year results cannot be accurately estimated at this time.
(2) Smelting and demand: In Yunnan, the TC for 40% tin concentrates at about 17,500 yuan/mt is still in the compressed range; refined tin operating rates in Yunnan are around 80%, and in Jiangxi at low levels of 32%–35%. Solder and alloy operating rates in August remain sluggish; the marginal increase of 12,000–15,000 mt for the full year from AI servers and advanced packaging acts as an amplifier for the “small variety, high elasticity” dynamics. Before the stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei smartphones starts in late August, spot high-price acceptance remains persistently weak.
Spot Market (August 6 recap + August 7 morning session estimate)
August 7 morning spot estimate: opening at 430,000–433,000 yuan/mt. If the 2609 contract fails to reclaim 432,000 in early trading, traders’ holding-back sentiment would ease and Yunnan Tin’s premium may retreat from +1,800 to around +1,300. If volume expands below 428,000, it would be the first decent restocking window for downstream sectors (PV welding strip + electronics) this week—but ahead of the non-farm payrolls, most end-users still choose to wait and see, making it difficult for trading volume to expand significantly.

[Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is produced by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not substitute this for their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]