Spot lithium carbonate prices edged down this week. The futures market first declined before rebounding. The price range of the most-traded 2609 contract moved sideways from 135,600-140,800 yuan/mt early in the week to 138,300-144,300 yuan/mt, hitting a weekly low of 135,600 yuan/mt before bouncing, and a high of 144,300 yuan/mt. Open interest shrank continuously, with bears closing positions and some bulls exiting.
Market trading remained characterized by downstream purchasing as needed and tight upstream spot orders, with overall transactions relatively stable. Some upstream lithium chemical plants showed signs of easing in their willingness to hold prices firm, but as some plants remained under maintenance, they mainly fulfilled long-term contracts, limiting their ability to sell spot cargoes. Actual spot sales stayed relatively minimal. Downstream material plants continued to purchase as needed on dips. With long-term contracts and customer deliveries arriving early in the month, spot procurement stayed cautious. Some downstream buyers saw increased spot demand due to reduced long-term contract volumes from upstream maintenance, but large-scale stockpiling had yet to emerge. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable.
Supply-side production remained largely steady, as maintenance and salt lake output growth offset each other. China's lithium carbonate output was basically stable this week. Salt lake production still had room to further increase due to seasonal factors, while maintenance at spodumene and lepidolite processors continued, causing a slight output decline this week. Regarding inventory changes: some upstream lithium chemical plants affected by maintenance prioritized long-term contract supply, with willingness to sell spot cargoes remaining weak, leading to accumulation of in-factory inventory. Downstream material plants maintained their dip-buying, as-needed procurement strategy, keeping inventories broadly stable. Traders saw a slight destocking as tight upstream spot supply and sustained downstream just-in-time procurement combined.
Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note within a range. Supply-side support comes from ongoing maintenance at lithium chemical plants and tight spot supply, while seasonal growth from salt lakes provides some replenishment but cannot fully offset the maintenance-induced reduction. On the demand side, downstream dip-buying continues, but large-scale stockpiling has not yet started, and purchase willingness at high prices is limited. Currently, tight spot circulation and a strengthening spot-futures price spread may lend support to prices. Key areas to watch include the pace of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants, the persistence of seasonal salt lake output growth, changes in downstream restocking pace, and the progress of warrant destocking.
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