UBS Forecasts Palladium Market Surplus, Cuts Price Outlook to US$1,100/oz

[SMM Express] Platinum prices remained above the key US$1,600/oz level following a volatile trading session on Wednesday 29th July 2026, with the metal recovering from early weakness to trade around US$1,613/oz after briefly rallying to an intraday high near US$1,640/oz. Strong buying interest emerged once prices reclaimed the US$1,600 threshold, although renewed selling pressure near the US$1,620–1,640 resistance zone limited further upside. Technical indicators point to gradually improving short-term momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continued to strengthen, suggesting the recent recovery may extend in the near term. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained below the neutral 50 level, indicating bullish momentum has yet to fully develop despite improving market sentiment. Market participants are closely monitoring whether platinum can establish sustained trading above US$1,620/oz, which could provide the foundation for another attempt at recent highs. On the downside, the US$1,600/oz level has emerged as an important area of support, with additional support seen around US$1,590/oz. In the near term, platinum is expected to consolidate within its current trading range as investors assess technical signals alongside broader precious metals market conditions and underlying demand fundamentals.

[SMM Express] African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) has reaffirmed its commitment to long-term growth following board approval of the R15.2 billion Bokoni platinum project and the R753 million restart of the Nkomati nickel mine. Management described Bokoni as a high-grade, low-cost platinum group metals (PGMs) growth platform capable of producing 350,000–400,000 6E PGM ounces annually, supported by existing infrastructure, a 31-million-ounce measured resource and an expected post-tax net present value of R5.9 billion with a projected internal rate of return of 28%. The Nkomati restart is expected to re-establish South Africa's only primary nickel producer, targeting a 5.3-year payback period and a 28.4% internal rate of return. The investment announcement has, however, generated mixed market reactions. ARM shares have declined 21% this year, with some analysts expressing concerns over the timing and scale of the Bokoni investment and its potential impact on near-term cash flow. Others view the projects as a strategic response to tightening South African PGM supply and improving platinum market fundamentals, arguing that ARM's strong balance sheet and the projects' long-term economics could enhance production resilience and shareholder value through future commodity cycles.