SMM, July 30:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the August 2608 contract were quoted at premiums of 220 yuan/mt to 310 yuan/mt, with an average of 265 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, SHFE copper 2608 contract shot up at the open before retreating after a rapid rise. The contract opened at 105,000 yuan/mt, then continued to climb, hitting a session high of 105,440 yuan/mt, before pulling back to 105,040 yuan/mt by the close. The Backwardation structure between the front-month and next-month contracts stood between 130 yuan/mt and 200 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for the SHFE copper 2608 contract with current-month invoices ranged from a loss of 540 yuan/mt to a loss of 460 yuan/mt.
Intraday, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region stood at 2.84, down 0.21 WoW, while the purchase sentiment stood at 2.78, down 0.16 WoW; historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers offered standard-quality copper with current-month invoices at premiums of 300-320 yuan/mt, and Tiefeng cargoes with next-month invoices were quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt. Suppliers then lowered their quotes slightly; Jinguan, Jintun PC, and Jinxin cargoes with current-month invoices were offered at an EXW premium of 280 yuan/mt, while Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, and Zijin cargoes with next-month invoices were quoted at premiums of 260-270 yuan/mt. High-quality copper supply was scarce, with only some Jintun large plates and Guixi circulating, quoted at premiums of 300-320 yuan/mt for current-month invoices. Non-registered copper cargoes like KCC were quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt for next-month invoices. In the second session, suppliers further lowered quotes; Tiefeng was quoted at a premium of 220 yuan/mt for next-month invoices, while Tongguan, Zijin, and Yuguang were quoted at premiums of 250-260 yuan/mt for next-month invoices.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, as month-end approaches, downstream enterprises will continue to buy mainly on a need-to basis. Combined with a slight rise in SHFE copper prices today, market purchasing sentiment cooled, and spot transaction activity declined from the previous trading day. According to SMM, current downstream purchase willingness is largely concentrated below a premium of 200 yuan/mt, and the psychological price gap between buyers and sellers remains wide; suppliers are likely to continue lowering quotes to close deals. Low-priced non-registered copper, due to its wide price spread against registered cargoes, saw relatively better transactions for some parcels, but this provided limited support to overall demand. On the inventory front, SMM recorded social inventory of 69,500 mt in Shanghai, down 500 mt WoW from Monday, and 21,200 mt in Jiangsu, also down 500 mt WoW from Monday. Inventory in east China saw a slight destocking, which still provides some support for spot premiums. However, the current destocking pace is relatively modest, and the supply of cargoes with next-month invoices is ample. Overall, with support from low inventory but headwinds from weakening month-end consumption and a strong downstream desire to bargain down prices, spot prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, though the overall center may continue to edge lower.
![Copper social inventory consolidated during the week, with total inventory lower YoY [SMM weekly data]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XBbTq20251217171709.jpg)
![Low Inventory Support Remains, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Consolidate and Pull Back [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/SiNDH20251217171711.jpg)
