US Fed decision landed, the most-traded SHFE tin contract shot up quickly in the morning then pulled back under pressure [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review for July 29, 2026

In both domestic and overseas tin markets this morning, prices shot up rapidly before pulling back under pressure. The most-traded SHFE tin contract reached a high of 423,660 yuan/mt in the morning, then consolidated and pulled back, closing the morning session at 416,860 yuan/mt, up 0.49% from the previous trading day’s settlement price. On the LME, the three-month tin contract was last at $54,175/mt, edging up 0.6%.

Macro side:

(1) The US Fed’s FOMC decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% was in line with broad market expectations. This marked the fifth consecutive hold this year (with an internal vote of 9 in favor of holding and 3 dissenting, advocating a 25bp hike). The smooth passing of the decision released macro sentiment, directly driving the rapid rise in tin prices in the morning session.

(2) On July 29, Iranian missiles struck a US military base in Jordan, after which US forces, joined by Saudi Arabia, conducted strikes against Iran-linked militias inside Iraq. Trump publicly stated that he would retaliate strongly against Iran and did not rule out the possibility of large-scale strikes on Iranian territory. The brief window for diplomatic negotiations that had emerged earlier has now largely closed, further exacerbating geopolitical uncertainty.

Spot side, the market remained constrained by absolute high prices, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, and overall trading featured just-in-time procurement. Looking at various downstream segments, the whole market was weighed down by the off-season. The solder market was in the traditional off-season for the electronics industry, with terminal orders being released at a slow pace. Although consumption from emerging sectors such as NEVs and AI servers was positive, the growth was offset by weakness in traditional demand, and overall purchasing remained thin under the pressure of high futures prices. The tin chemical stabilizer market was constrained by the slow release of traditional demand from China’s real estate and infrastructure sectors. Downstream in the PVC industry mostly purchased as needed, and overall trading sentiment was subdued. Meanwhile, other downstream inorganic tin sectors also exhibited high-price suppression and a slowdown in terminal demand pace. Tinplate export orders outside China weakened somewhat due to anti-dumping policies in some countries, but overall operating rates remained relatively steady.

In summary, the market was notably influenced in the short term by fluctuating macro sentiment. The Fed’s “no rate hike” decision in the early morning briefly ignited bullish sentiment, driving prices to quickly touch a high in the morning session; however, tin’s own fundamentals did not undergo any material change. Against the backdrop of the traditional consumption off-season, high spot prices depressing downstream purchases, and generally slow terminal orders, upward momentum for tin prices weakened somewhat. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term, caught in a tug-of-war between “macro sentiment lifting” and “off-season fundamental pressure.”