July 29, 2026 Tin Midday Review
Today, tin markets in and outside China overall dipped at the open before quickly rebounding and then consolidating. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 412,400 yuan/mt, moved sideways mainly around 416,000–417,000 yuan/mt this morning, and closed the morning session at 416,800 yuan/mt, up 0.44% from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin was last quoted at $54,005/mt, up 1.12%.
On the macro front:
(1) NBS data showed that industrial enterprises above designated size achieved total profits of 3,947.99 billion yuan in January–June 2026, up 18.7% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. June alone saw profits rise 15.1% YoY, reflecting that industrial corporate earnings are on a steady recovery track and providing a mildly supportive macro backdrop for China’s industrial commodities.
(2) On July 24 local time, Trump publicly stated that the US has enough patience to advance US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, and that in-depth consultations are underway with mediation efforts. He also drew a clear red line: if no consensus is reached, the US will immediately resume and intensify military strikes, with forces and ammunition at readiness. The current round of talks centers on navigation rules in the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of a memorandum. The US still maintains a naval blockade on Iran, leaving geopolitical uncertainties in place.
(3) With the US Fed’s interest rate decision imminent, market funds have broadly adopted a wait-and-see stance. Overseas macro sentiment remains in a stalemate, with bullish and bearish forces tugging at each other.
In the spot market, trading remained sluggish this morning, with most deals consisting of small-scale just-in-time procurement. With futures consolidating and prices staying high, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment and limited willingness to actively price orders. Compared with this morning’s quiet activity, last night’s night session saw more low-price bids placed when futures dipped, with orders concentrated in the 406,000–408,000 yuan/mt range. This indicates that downstream buyers still have just-in-time purchase willingness on pullbacks, but large-volume transactions are hard to achieve at current high levels.
Overall, the tin market is now in a sideways phase marked by “steady fundamentals, macro and overseas sentiment in stalemate.” On the macro dimension, cautious trading ahead of the Fed’s decision leaves overseas sentiment lacking clear direction. On the industrial fundamentals side, slow production resumptions in Myanmar and low domestic inventory continue to provide bottom support for futures, while downstream wait-and-see at high prices and thin just-in-time buying on dips have created substantial overhead resistance. Before a strong new catalyst breaks the deadlock, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain the supply-demand pattern of “inventory support below, thin deal flow capping above” and consolidate within the 410,000–420,000 yuan/mt range.
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