US Fed meets on rates early morning, SHFE tin 2609 tests 410,000 support [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

LME: LME three-month tin closed overnight at $53,405/mt, down 1.72%, leading the decline among London base metals (lead -0.29%, aluminum -0.60%, copper -0.64%, zinc -1.22%, nickel -1.56%). The previous trading day (July 28), LME tin closed at $54,445/mt, up $390, but the overnight drop fully erased those gains, confirming that resistance above $54,000 is effective.
China (July 28 daytime session → July 29 pre-market): SHFE tin 2609 contract saw small fluctuations on Tuesday evening, as bulls took profits, pulling back to close at 413,500 yuan/mt, down 0.36%.
Inventory: China's social inventory of tin ingot declined in the short term; "low inventory + tight ore" remain the core supports at the bottom.
Macro
(1) The US Fed's July interest rate decision to be announced at 2:00 a.m. tonight; rate hike expectations remain uncertain. US initial jobless claims hit a four-year low, and rate hike expectations are still uncertain, which is the main macro risk currently capping upside room for the nonferrous metals sector. The market is holding its breath for the final outcome, and the futures are likely to stay cautiously consolidating ahead of the decision.
(2) The informal US-Iran ceasefire fell apart, and crude oil surged. Iran fired missiles at a US military base this morning, and Iran's deputy foreign minister said they have not received any US negotiation request in the past 15 days. Crude oil rose, while base metals consolidated on a subdued note. The geopolitical risk → crude oil → inflation → interest rate chain is tightening again, creating macro pressure on tin, a zero-yielding asset.
(3) High prosperity of the computing power chain continues. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In H1, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide were up 18.7% YoY. Strong computing power demand drove profits of the electronics industry up 96.9%, with integrated circuit manufacturing profits surging nearly 26 times and computer manufacturing profits up nearly 7 times. Tin's "AI solder alpha" long-term logic remains intact, but is being suppressed by macro and high prices in the short term.
Fundamentals
(1) Supply: The pattern of tight ore and limited ingot remains unchanged; production resumptions in Wa State continue to fall short of expectations. Actual monthly output in Myanmar's Wa State is around 1,200 mt Sn, with the Man Maw tin mine's production resumption level at only 40%-50% of pre-ban levels, and Myanmar is expected to achieve full production resumption only by 2027. In January-June, China imported 13,200 mt of tin concentrates from Myanmar, down 75.96% YoY.
Indonesia's refined tin exports in June were 2,995 mt (up 5.09% MoM, down 32.55% YoY), with the RKAB annual quota at only 55,000-60,000 mt and export tax and fee controls continuing to tighten.
(2) Demand: High prices are suppressing transactions, with dual pressure from the off-season and fear of high prices. Downstream users are cautious and have limited willingness to actively restock due to high prices, leading to subdued spot trading. Demand for high-purity tin from AI servers and advanced packaging continues to be released, but short-term high prices are making solder factories, home appliance, and PV clients cautious in placing orders. Stockpiling for new models from Apple and Huawei in late August will be the next demand trigger.
Spot Market (July 28 Review)
Prices: The average SMM 1# tin price was 412,900 yuan/mt, down 6,350 yuan/mt.

Transactions: Weak. Smelters held prices and held back from selling, but shipments were limited. Traders slightly lowered premiums in line with the market, but downstream remained cautious and waited on the sidelines amid high prices, procurement pace slowed, and market transactions turned light. On the industry side, the bottom-supporting logic of "tight ore supply + limited ingot + low inventory" remains intact, but the crowding-out effect of high prices on downstream is very evident. Resistance sentiment among solder plants above 410,000 yuan/mt will be hard to eliminate in the short term. If the 2609 contract declines back to the 400,000–402,000 range in early trading, it may trigger scattered rigid-demand pricing.

[Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions prudently, not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment, and any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM]