Middle East Situation Sees Phased Easing, SHFE Tin Center Moves Up to Consolidate at Highs [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Tin Midday Commentary, July 27, 2026

Tin markets in and outside China continued to consolidate at highs overall. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 416,310 yuan/mt, surged to an intraday high of 422,290 yuan/mt, then modestly retreated and consolidated around 419,500 yuan/mt, closing the morning session at 419,550 yuan/mt, up 1.86% from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME, the three-month tin contract was last at $54,250/mt, up 0.48%.

On the macro front:

(1) Tensions in the Middle East showed signs of a phased cooling. Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes on Iran on July 24 (after 13 consecutive nights of strikes), mainly due to the rapid depletion of air defense interceptor missile reserves and to leave a window for potential diplomatic negotiations; Iran then responded on the 26th by announcing a halt to reciprocal military strikes. Cooling geopolitical risk sentiment caused a significant squeeze out of premiums in the energy market, with Brent crude oil plunging 5% at Monday's open to around $92/bbl, and WTI crude oil also sliding to around $84.7/bbl.

(2) The US Fed is about to hold its FOMC meeting on July 29. The market widely expects the US Fed to hold steady, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged. The liquidity environment outside China remains stable amid a wait-and-see stance in the near term.

On the spot front, morning spot trading remained sluggish. As futures prices surged again and returned to the high range of 420,000 yuan/mt, wait-and-see sentiment among downstream and end-user buyers intensified further. During the session, inquiry activity was sluggish, with only a very small number of enterprises with rigid demand making sporadic small-lot purchases.

Overall, the phased easing of Middle East tensions drove down prices of crude oil and other energy commodities, easing concerns over a second wave of inflation, and together with stable expectations ahead of the US Fed meeting, the overall macro mood stabilized. Back to tin fundamentals, the logic continued to be a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. On the one hand, low social inventory in China combined with the slow recovery of supply from Myanmar supported the price floor; on the other hand, after the surge in futures prices, spot market trading was quiet, with high prices still significantly suppressing consumption, limiting the room for an upside breakout. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE tin contract will continue to consolidate at highs in the short term.