High-Range See-Saw, Awaiting Breakout Signals Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, July 27, 2026

Market Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated at highs last week amid macro sentiment and fundamentals, swinging wildly at highs. Its price center was swayed by the interplay of recurring geopolitical conflicts, the quiet period before the US Fed meeting, and the bullish narrative of the high-boom AI industry. Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract traded mainly between 410,000 and 423,000 yuan/mt, caught in a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers limited at the top by transactions and supported at the bottom by low inventories. In the tin ingot spot market, trading was persistently sluggish last week. Futures prices repeatedly spiked or consolidated at highs, fueling strong fear of high prices and a wait-and-see sentiment among downstream solder and electronics processing enterprises, which significantly dampened their willingness to purchase. A trickle of rigid-demand pricing and orders was released only when intraday futures prices showed narrow dips or pullbacks. The market was dominated by scattered, need-based buying, lacking any sizable buying support, and the trading atmosphere was weak.

Market Forecast:

International macro: Fed Governor Waller made hawkish remarks, hinting that monetary policy would need tightening if core inflation reheated, which sowed doubts about rate-hike expectations and lent support to the US dollar index, weighing on non-yielding assets in the nonferrous sector. Meanwhile, lingering concerns over a pullback in AI-related capex continued to put pressure on tin’s financial attributes. China’s tin market is set to consolidate at highs in a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with fundamentals mixed. Supply side, with the Wa state rainy season entering its final stage, tin concentrate TCs have been raised again, reflecting a marginal easing in ore supply, but the overall recovery is limited. Full-year production is expected to recover to only 40–50% of the pre-ban level, while Indonesia’s refined tin exports continued to shrink sharply YoY, leaving ex-China supply tight. Demand side, the current period is the traditional off-season for PV welding strip and consumer electronics, and high prices have distinctly suppressed downstream procurement. Solder enterprises harbor deep fear of high prices, only maintaining rigid, small-lot purchases, with the market showing clear “priced but not traded” characteristics. However, sharply higher South Korean semiconductor exports once again confirmed the strong heat in AI demand, providing underlying support for demand. Tin inventories in and outside China declined in tandem, with the LME inventory drawdown streak continuing and holdings still at historically low levels, underpinning tin prices. Looking ahead to this week, macro disturbances and the supply-demand struggle will persist. Tin prices are highly likely to stay rangebound at high levels, capped by sluggish off-season demand that struggles to catch up, while supported by tight ore supply and inventory destocking. Investors should monitor signals of Wa state production resumptions and the start of downstream consumer electronics stockpiling; cautious operations are recommended for now.