[SMM Analysis]China's Galvanized Steel Sheet Trade Holds Firm in H1 2026, but H2 Recovery Faces External Headwinds

SMM July 24 News:

According to the latest customs data, China exported a total of 6.7066 million mt of galvanized steel sheet during January–June 2026, down 3.13% YoY, while imports totaled 327,500 mt, a 14.78% YoY decline. Overall, although exports softened compared with the same period last year, the decline remained relatively limited, demonstrating the resilience of China's galvanized steel sheet exports. Traditional export markets came under pressure due to a temporary slowdown in Middle East demand following the US-Iran conflict and the continued escalation of global trade frictions. Meanwhile, robust demand growth in Southeast Asia further increased the region's share of China's exports, making it a key driver supporting overall export performance.

1. Review of China's Galvanized Steel Sheet Trade in H1 2026

(1) Exports: Rising Southeast Asian Demand Offset Weakness in Other Markets

In the first half of 2026, the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea were China's top three export destinations for galvanized steel sheet, accounting for approximately 31% of total exports combined. Southeast Asia continued to be China's largest export market.

Customs data show that exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 36.9% of China's total galvanized steel sheet exports in H1 2026, up from 32.7% in the same period last year, representing an increase of 4.2 percentage points. The region was the primary contributor supporting export performance during the first half of the year.

From the perspective of export trends, the US-Iran conflict that erupted in late February temporarily weakened downstream demand in the Middle East, leading to delays or cancellations of some orders and a decline in China's galvanized steel sheet exports to the region. At the same time, anti-dumping investigations launched by multiple overseas countries and regions against Chinese steel products also created headwinds for exports.

Nevertheless, continued manufacturing investment, steady infrastructure development, and resilient regional demand in Southeast Asia helped offset part of the weakness in other markets, allowing China's overall galvanized steel sheet exports to record only a modest year-on-year decline during the first half of the year.

(2) Imports: Import Volumes Remained Weak and Continued to Decline

China's galvanized steel sheet imports remained subdued throughout H1 2026.

South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan (China) continued to be the country's three major import sources. Among them, South Korea exported 126,000 mt to China, accounting for 38% of total imports and ranking first. Japan supplied 93,000 mt, representing 28%, while Taiwan (China) exported 77,000 mt, accounting for 23%.

Together, these three suppliers accounted for nearly 90% of China's total galvanized steel sheet imports, indicating that import sources remained highly concentrated.

2. Outlook for China's Galvanized Steel Sheet Market in H2 2026

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, China's galvanized steel sheet exports are expected to remain resilient but see only limited recovery.

On the positive side, demand from Southeast Asia is expected to remain relatively resilient, continuing to provide solid support for China's exports. In addition, market expectations remain for future infrastructure reconstruction and rebuilding projects in the Middle East. Should these projects begin as anticipated, they could help restore part of the region's galvanized steel sheet demand and provide incremental support for export orders in H2.

However, uncertainties surrounding the international trade environment remain significant. In recent years, trade remedy investigations targeting Chinese steel products have continued to increase, with anti-dumping and countervailing measures posing persistent challenges to China's galvanized steel sheet exports. As a result, the scope for a meaningful improvement in export orders is expected to remain limited.

Overall, supported by resilient Southeast Asian demand and potential recovery in the Middle East, China's galvanized steel sheet exports are expected to retain a degree of resilience in the second half of 2026. Nevertheless, ongoing trade frictions and uncertainty surrounding global demand are likely to constrain the pace of recovery, with full-year exports expected to remain broadly stable but slightly weaker overall.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)