Spot prices continued to grind lower, and off-season supply generally saw production cuts [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, in the northern market, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,650-5,700 yuan/mt, down WoW; in the southern market, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, down WoW from last Friday, and SiMn 6014 (cash) was at 5,350-5,400 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Recently, SiMn futures moved sideways on a subdued note, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Spot prices fell, and futures and spot prices were largely in sync.

Cost side: On the ore front, spot manganese ore prices continued to grind lower; on the electricity price front, after being raised, electricity prices in Guangxi and Guizhou stayed high and are expected to remain elevated without decline. Yunnan entered the rainy season, leading to lower electricity prices. During the low-wind season, some areas in Inner Mongolia imposed power rationing, causing a slight increase in electricity prices.Amid these factors, SiMn's integrated production costs declined somewhat.

Supply side: In Inner Mongolia, operations remained relatively stable, but most enterprises reported severe losses, with maintenance, production cuts, and load reductions; capacity release coexisted with blast furnace maintenance. In Ningxia, production cuts deepened. In south China, overall operating rates at alloy plants were low, with few shipment opportunities; trading activity was sluggish.Overall industry supply declined, while enterprises' finished product inventories stayed high. High destocking pressure weighed on SiMn futures and spot prices in the short term.

Demand side: End-use consumption of alloys was sluggish, and downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Steel mills and traders were cautious in restocking, making it difficult to effectively boost the SiMn market in the short term. Steel mill tenders gradually entered the market; HBIS Group's July 2026 SiMn procurement volume was 15,400 mt, flat MoM from June. The first inquiry was at 5,900 yuan/mt, with the final price set at 5,950 yuan/mt, which did little to boost the market. Sentiment for selling remained subdued.

Overall, demand was unable to effectively boost prices, and most producers were mired in losses. Under a loose supply-demand balance, SiMn is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. Going forward, attention should remain on SiMn supply-demand changes and futures fluctuations.