Demand Remains Persistently Weak, Market Moves Sideways at Low Levels [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the North China market was at 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, up from last Friday; SiMn 6517 (cash) in the South China market was at 5,750-5,800 yuan/mt, up from last Friday; and SiMn 6014 (cash) in the South China market was at 5,350-5,450 yuan/mt, flat from last Friday.

Recently, SiMn futures moved sideways in a weak narrow range, market pessimism remained heavy, spot prices consolidated at lows, and futures and spot prices stayed largely in step.

Cost side, ore side: spot manganese ore prices continued to grind lower; electricity price side: electricity prices in Guangxi and Guizhou remained high with no decline expected, Yunnan entered the rainy season and electricity prices were reduced somewhat, and in parts of Inner Mongolia during the low-wind season, power rationing led to slight increases in electricity prices.With multiple factors intertwined, SiMn overall production costs declined somewhat.

Supply side: Inner Mongolia operations remained relatively stable, but most producers reported severe losses at present, with maintenance-related production cuts and load reductions, while capacity release and blast furnace maintenance coexisted. In Ningxia, producer losses deepened and production cuts increased; South China showed divergence. In Yunnan, alloy producers saw relatively notable declines in overall costs due to lower rainy-season electricity prices, and operating rates increased; other parts of South China continued to run at relatively low operating rates, with fewer shipment opportunities and a sluggish market trading atmosphere.Overall industry supply declined, finished product inventories at enterprises remained high, and high destocking pressure weighed on SiMn spot and futures prices in the near term.

Demand side: alloy end-use consumption was sluggish, downstream overall purchasing sentiment remained weak, and steel mills and traders were cautious about restocking, making it difficult to provide an effective boost to the SiMn market in the near term. Steel mill tenders continued to come in. HBIS set its August 2026 SiMn price at 5,880 yuan/mt, only 80 yuan/mtu above the initial inquiry of 5,800 yuan/mt, and this represented a notable MoM decline from the July price of 5,950 yuan/mt, with significant downward pricing pressure. Procurement volume was 16,600 mt. This round of steel mill tender pricing did little to boost the market, and market shipment sentiment remained cautious.

Overall, current demand can hardly provide an effective boost to prices, and producers are broadly in a loss-making position. Against a loose supply-demand backdrop, SiMn is expected to continue consolidating on a subdued note in the near term. The market remains dominated by wait-and-see and relatively pessimistic sentiment. Going forward, it remains necessary to monitor SiMn supply-demand changes and fluctuations in futures.