June 27, 2026 Tin Daily Review
The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 416,450 yuan/mt today, saw its center dip to an intraday low of 409,010 yuan/mt, then pulled back in a narrow range, and closed at 414,190 yuan/mt in the afternoon, down 0.84% from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME side, the three-month tin contract was tentatively quoted at $53,680/mt, up 0.45%.
Macro front:
(1) On July 23 local time, US President Trump publicly stated that he was seriously considering resuming large-scale military operations against Iran, with the new round of strikes possibly exceeding the scale of previous air strikes, and that all US military preparations had been completed. Trump accused Iran of lacking willingness to negotiate and said the US military could carry out the operation independently. The renewed tension in the Middle East continued to fuel market concerns about geopolitical risks and uncertainty over energy supply.
(2) On the domestic monetary policy front, the central bank announced that to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation via fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price bidding, effectively stabilizing liquidity expectations in the domestic financial market.
Spot market, the trading atmosphere still did not see a notable improvement, with overall transactions remaining mediocre. Although futures prices showed signs of easing, absolute prices remained at a high range of 410,000 yuan/mt. The narrow pullback in intraday prices prompted a small volume of rigid-demand orders to enter the market for inquiries, but downstream and end-user enterprises still lacked willingness to purchase in large quantities, maintaining a clear wait-and-see stance on high prices, and the market overall lacked large-scale actual order commitments.
Overall, the current tin market fundamentals and macro front are both in a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces, and futures prices are moving sideways. On the fundamental side, China's social inventories at relatively low levels provide bottom support for prices, while the subdued spot trading and the suppression of end-use consumption by high prices constitute substantial resistance to the upside. On the macro dimension, the escalating geopolitical conflicts and evolving overseas liquidity expectations have intertwined, further increasing the wait-and-see sentiment among funds. It is expected that in the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract will remain constrained by the dual supply-demand bind of "bottom support from inventory and ceiling from transaction limits," maintaining a consolidation pattern.
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