Off-season demand pressures SHFE tin, which weakens in the night session, testing 410,000 support [SMM tin early news]

SMM Tin Morning Brief, Jul 24, 2026:

The most-traded SHFE tin contract drifted lower in the night session yesterday (Jul 23), after opening on a weak note. The session opened at 413,750 yuan/mt, down 0.94% from the previous day’s settlement, edged up to an intraday high of 416,450 yuan/mt before pulling back, with the price center shifting steadily lower. It bottomed at 410,000 yuan/mt during the session, swinging about 6,450 yuan/mt. Trading volume expanded to 67,705 lots, while open interest edged down to 23,300 lots, signaling clear bearish intent to push prices lower.

Macro:

(1) At 7:33 a.m. on Jul 24, the CAS Space Lijian-1 carrier rocket was successfully launched from the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Area, delivering five satellites—including the Gande-1 01 satellite, the first of the Gande Constellation Phase I LX630 series—into predetermined orbits via a multi-satellite rideshare mission. The Gande-1 01 satellite is the first in the LX630 constellation system co-developed by Liangxi Aerospace Technology Group and Aotian Technology, and is China’s first commercial space debris monitoring satellite. After orbit insertion, the satellite’s solar panels deployed normally and its attitude stabilized, marking a fully successful launch. This maiden launch officially kicked off the deployment of the Aotian Gande Constellation.
(2) Stripe is in talks to acquire OpenRouter, a popular startup that helps developers choose among various AI models, according to people familiar with the matter. A deal could be announced soon, though there remains a chance that negotiations collapse or another bidder emerges. The exact price under discussion is unclear, but sources said the company’s sale valuation could be around $10 billion. The people added that several large tech firms have previously explored acquiring OpenRouter. Founded in 2023, OpenRouter sells software that gives customers easy access to AI models developed by OpenAI and Anthropic, as well as open-weight models that anyone can download and run for free. Acquiring OpenRouter would allow Stripe to capture a hot growth area in the AI market.
(3) South Korea’s Minister of Science and ICT, Bae Kyung-hoon, said he plans to depart for Silicon Valley later on Thursday local time. After meeting with CEOs of domestic telecom operators in downtown Seoul, Bae said the visit will focus on “strengthening cooperation and encouraging big tech companies to invest in South Korea.” Discussions will cover AI cooperation, market expansion, AI data centers, and the semiconductor sector. Bae also said he intends to use the trip to promote South Korea’s AI ecosystem, describing it as a summit aimed at showcasing “K-AI” strength to the world. Bae left for San Francisco on Thursday evening and is scheduled to meet with executives from major US tech firms including Broadcom, OpenAI, Anthropic and Nvidia (NVDA.O).

Fundamentals:

(1) Supply: With the Wa State rainy season winding down and TCs rising, the supply situation has eased marginally but remains constrained. Tin concentrate TCs were raised by 500 yuan/mt, bringing the cumulative increase to 1,750 yuan/mt, reflecting that a phased replenishment of ore has eased smelting pressure. The Wa State rainy season (from May to July) is coming to an end; restart efforts are beginning, yet overall output for the full year will only recover to 40%–50% of pre-ban levels, with a full production resumption pushed back to 2027. Whether output rises to 1,800 mt/month of metal content after August is a key variable. Indonesia exported 2,995 mt of refined tin in June, up 5.09% MoM but down 32.55% YoY, taking cumulative January–June exports to 18,715 mt, down 25% YoY; the trend of nearly halved exports remains unchanged.

(2) Demand: The off-season is deepening, but AI and semiconductors provide a floor. July is the traditional off-season for PV welding strip and consumer electronics, with downstream users wary of high prices and staying on the sidelines; stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei phone models starting in late August is the next demand trigger.

Spot market: Elevated tin prices are significantly suppressing downstream activity, with wait-and-see sentiment persisting. Downstream purchase willingness is low, overall activity is dominated by restocking for rigid demand, and there is little appetite to rush to buy amid continuous price increase.

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