Aluminum alloy futures are weak, and spot ADC12 remains stable with a wait-and-see attitude [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: Today, the 2609 aluminum alloy contract opened at 23,020 yuan/mt in the daytime session, reached a high of 23,020 yuan/mt and a low of 22,920 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,945 yuan/mt at midday, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.41% from the settlement price. After opening, bulls lacked momentum to push higher, and prices remained below the time-weighted average price line. The market moved lower in choppy trade, repeatedly testing support levels. Brief rebounds were limited and lacked follow-through buying. Trading volume expanded during the day, while open interest pulled back, indicating a slight outflow of funds. In the short term, prices encountered notable resistance, and the overall trend was one of consolidating on a subdued note.

Spot market: Today, ADC12 quotations continued to hold steady overall, with limited willingness across the industry to adjust prices. In terms of drivers, the cost side provided some floor support for prices, but end-use demand remained sluggish, downstream procurement pace slowed, and wait-and-see sentiment heightened amid a slight pullback in aluminum prices, collectively capping upside room. Amid this mixed picture, most producers chose to keep prices stable and adopted a wait-and-see stance, with market trading atmosphere being sluggish. In the near term, the ADC12 market is expected to continue moving sideways in a narrow range. Going forward, focus should remain on changes in aluminum scrap costs, primary aluminum price trends, and end-use order improvements.

Import market: Overseas ADC12 quotations fell further to $3,050-3,160/mt. Domestic prices remained relatively firm on the back of cost support. Consequently, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, import losses narrowed to within 1,000 yuan/mt, and the import arbitrage window improved compared to earlier. However, import growth in the near term is still expected to remain limited.