Analysis of China's Platinum and Palladium Import Market in H1 2026
In H1 2026, China's imports of platinum and palladium showed divergent trends. Imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder continued steady growth, up about 17.8% YoY cumulatively in H1, while imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder surged, up 116% YoY cumulatively in H1. Overall, imports of platinum group metals maintained resilience, driven by industrial demand from glass fiber and hydrogen energy, while the surge in palladium imports was closely tied to factors including a low base, arbitrage on the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, and a policy window for Russian palladium trade. H2 trends will depend on global mine supply, changes in automotive and new energy demand, the ongoing impact of international geopolitics on Russian palladium trade, and arbitrage opportunities between Chinese and overseas markets.
June Imports of Unwrought Platinum and Platinum Powder Up 2.5% MoM H1 Cumulative Imports Up 17.8% YoY
In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were 10.67 mt, up 2.5% MoM and up 27.9% YoY; H1 cumulative imports were 48.18 mt, up 17.8% YoY.
In terms of trade mode, imports of unwrought platinum were mainly via Ordinary Trade, accounting for over 90%. By source, South Africa remained the top supplier, followed by Russia, Zimbabwe, etc. As the world's largest platinum producer, South Africa's mine supply situation significantly impacts China's imports. Since 2026, power shortages in South Africa have eased somewhat and mine expansions have advanced, but aging mines and insufficient capital expenditure still constrain supply elasticity, keeping overall supply rigid.
On the demand side, the main reasons supporting the growth in platinum imports were strong demand from the glass and glass fiber industry, where platinum demand surged 83% YoY to 12 mt, driving overall industrial demand up 9% YoY; and the continued expansion of platinum demand from the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, with PEM electrolyzers, fuel cell vehicles, etc. becoming core growth drivers.
In H1 2026, platinum prices were under pressure and consolidating overall. Affected by the US Fed's hawkish stance, a stronger US dollar index, and concerns over global economic growth, the most-traded NYMEX platinum futures contract fluctuated in the $1,930–2,070/oz range in late May, while the most-traded GFEX platinum futures contract consolidated around 485 yuan/g. High and volatile prices led to strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream consumers, sluggish spot trading, and a phased slowdown in the pace of imports. H2, as global platinum inventories continue to destock and electronics & hydrogen energy projects accelerate, China's platinum imports are expected to maintain mild growth, though caution is needed regarding the suppression of industrial demand by a macroeconomic downturn.
June Imports of Unwrought Palladium and Palladium Powder Up 17.6% MoM H1 Cumulative Imports Double YoY
In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were 4.75 mt, up 17.6% MoM and up 114% YoY; H1 cumulative imports were 26.97 mt, up 116% YoY. By trade mode, unwrought palladium imports were also dominated by Ordinary Trade. By import source, Russia and South Africa were the main suppliers. According to China Customs sub-item data for May 2026, China imported 1.93 mt of palladium from Russia and 1.89 mt from South Africa that month, with the two countries together accounting for over 85%.
The sharp surge in palladium imports was mainly driven by: first, a low base in the year-ago period – monthly palladium imports in H1 2025 mostly ranged between 1 and 3 mt, creating a significant low base effect; second, in March–April 2026, with the US Commerce Department’s final anti-dumping determination on Russian unwrought palladium approaching, some traders rushed to import Russian palladium ahead of the final USITC ruling and tariff implementation, and China’s palladium imports in April hit a multi-year monthly record; third, substantial import arbitrage opportunities emerged in Q1, and arbitrage players locked in overseas supplies through import channels and sold on the futures market, leading to heavy warrant generation and boosting domestic spot palladium supply.
Yet the palladium market is still under fundamental pressure. Globally, automotive catalysts account for as much as 83% of palladium consumption, while vehicle electrification continues to exert long-term pressure on gasoline-vehicle catalyst demand. Palladium’s core demand faces structural contraction risks, and mounting global growth concerns may push palladium into a structural surplus cycle. On the supply side in May 2026, Nornickel’s platinum and palladium production fell sharply in Q1 due to western sanctions, which provided some support to palladium’s price floor but was insufficient to reverse the weak demand landscape.
Looking to H2, as the impact of the USITC final ruling is gradually digested and earlier concentrated cargo arrivals are absorbed by the market, palladium imports are expected to pull back from the high levels seen in Q2. For the full year, palladium imports will still maintain relatively high YoY growth, but are likely to pull back MoM in H2.
H2 Outlook
Overall, China’s platinum and palladium imports in H1 2026 showed a pattern of “stable platinum, strong palladium.” Platinum imports stayed resilient, supported by demand from glass fiber and hydrogen energy, and are expected to maintain mild growth in H2; palladium imports surged sharply on the back of the trade policy window and price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets, but growth is likely to slow marginally in H2 as the policy impact fades and structural demand-side pressures emerge.
The following factors warrant close attention in H2:
1. Mine supply: the impact of South Africa’s electricity situation and mine capital expenditure on platinum supply, and the effect of changes in Nornickel’s output on palladium supply;
2. Trade policy: the impact of the anti-dumping case and sanctions on Russian palladium on the pace of China’s palladium imports;
3. End-use demand: the boost to real platinum and palladium demand from domestic vehicle production and sales, the implementation of hydrogen energy projects, and technology roadmap shifts in the glass and glass fiber industries;
4. Price spreads and the futures market: the influence of price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets and GFEX platinum and palladium futures delivery conditions on the import window.
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