East China Inventory Stops Declining and Rebounds, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums under Pressure and Pull Back [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM July 23:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the August 2026 contract were quoted at premiums of 280–380 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 330 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2608 contract declined and then stabilized, consolidating sideways, with the overall price center edging slightly higher. The opening price was 106,100 yuan/mt; after opening, the price fell rapidly to a low of 105,920 yuan/mt, then quickly rebounded to 106,270 yuan/mt, mainly trading between 106,070–106,250 yuan/mt, reaching a session high of 106,300 yuan/mt, and closing at 106,170 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the August 2608 contract stood at a loss of 600–650 yuan/mt.

During the day, the sales sentiment for Shanghai copper cathode stood at 3.04, up 0.05 MoM, while the procurement sentiment was 2.75, up 0.15 MoM. Historical data can be accessed in the database. At the beginning of early trading, suppliers’ initial offers for standard-quality copper were at premiums of 340–400 yuan/mt, with Tie Feng, Jin Feng, Dajiang PC, Zijin, etc. quoted at premiums of 340–380 yuan/mt, and Lufang, Xiangguang, JCC, etc. at premiums of 390–400 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers quickly lowered their offers, quoting Tie Feng, Zijin, and Dajiang PC at premiums of 320–340 yuan/mt. High-quality copper such as Jinchuan plates and Jintun plates were offered at premiums of 380–420 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers further lowered their quotes, with Tie Feng, Jin Feng, Zhongjin, Zijin, etc. quoted at premiums of 250–280 yuan/mt, and high-quality Jinchuan plates at premiums of 370 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper brands such as TFM and LIULU were traded at premiums of 150–180 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, spot premiums for SHFE copper are expected to remain in premium territory, but the overall center may edge slightly lower. During the day, some suppliers actively cut prices to offload cargoes, driving market quotes rapidly lower. Although some suppliers showed stronger intent to hold prices firm after low-price transactions, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai stood at 68,300 mt, up 2,200 mt from Monday this week, and social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 22,000 mt, up 2,400 mt from Monday this week, marking the first slight inventory buildup in over three weeks. The low-inventory logic that previously supported higher premiums is weakening at the margin. Coupled with downstream buyers continuing to make just-in-time procurement, spot premiums are expected to face further downward pressure tomorrow, although suppliers’ price-holding efforts may limit the decline.