SHFE tin saw a slight correction in the night session, downstream users were cautious at high prices and only placed small orders for immediate needs [SMM Tin Morning Update]

July 23, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:
China Night Session: SHFE base metals were mixed in the night session, with SHFE tin 2608 falling 0.23% tracking LME tin, while SHFE gold surged 116% to lead the gains in some non-ferrous metals.

Macro:

(1) According to statistical analysis by CAAM, in June 2026, China's brand passenger vehicle sales reached 1.812 million units, up 7.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY, accounting for 75.5% of total passenger vehicle sales, with the sales market share up 8.2 percentage points YoY. From January to June 2026, China's brand passenger vehicle sales totaled 9.138 million units, down 1.4% YoY, accounting for 71.8% of total passenger vehicle sales, with the sales market share up 3.3 percentage points YoY.
(2) Tesla CEO Musk Elon disclosed that Micron Technology (MU.O) recently supplied a "large quantity" of memory chips to Tesla (TSLA.O), meeting the automaker's demand for this increasingly scarce material. Musk stated that against the backdrop of memory chips being hard to find with high prices, the trading terms for this batch of chips from Micron to Tesla were very reasonable. In the long term, Musk is committed to producing semiconductors in-house. The billionaire has launched an ambitious plan called "Terafab," aimed at manufacturing computing chips and memory chips on an unprecedented scale. For now, Tesla still relies on Micron. Data shows that Tesla and SpaceX are not among Micron's top ten clients.
(3) Nvidia (NVDA.O) and the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) announced on Wednesday that the AI chip giant has donated a supercomputer equipped with its latest chips to a non-profit organization associated with the school. Nvidia and NPS did not disclose the specific scale of the system, but confirmed it has been installed on the NPS campus in Monterey, California; Admiral Paparo Samuel J., commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun plan to hold an event there to officially announce the system's launch.

Fundamentals:

(1) Supply: Wa State's rainy season wrapping up + TCs raised, marginally easing but still constrained. Tin concentrate TCs raised by 500 yuan/mt, cumulatively up 1,750 yuan/mt, reflecting staged ore supply replenishment easing smelting pressure; Wa State's rainy season (May-July) is wrapping up, production resumption pace has commenced, but for the full year recovery remains only 40-50% of pre-ban levels; full production resumption pushed back to 2027, with whether volumes increase to 1,800 mt/month metal content after August being a key variable. Indonesia's refined tin exports in June were 2,995 mt, MoM +5.09% but YoY -32.55%, with cumulative January to June exports of 18,715 mt, YoY -25%, maintaining the sharp export cut trend.

(2) Demand: Off-season deepening, but AI and semiconductors provide support. July PV welding strip and consumer electronics in traditional off-season, downstream users hesitant at high prices; from late August, new model stocking from Apple and Huawei is the next demand trigger.

Spot Market: On July 22, spot tin ingot rose with futures to around 418,500 yuan/mt, maintaining a premium against the SHFE tin 2608 contract; suppliers held prices firm with strong intent, but downstream solder and PV orders were suppressed by both the off-season and high prices, only entering the market with small rigid-demand orders; most traders only traded in single-digit tonnage, with a clear "prices without significant transactions" characteristic.

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