Spot Polysilicon Sentiment Slightly Improved; Wafer Enterprises Wait-and-See on Pricing [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM July 22 News:

Silicon Coal

Price:

This week, silicon coal market prices saw slight reductions in individual regions. Among them, the transaction price of caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was approximately 1,300-1,400 yuan/mt, a WoW drop of about 50 yuan/mt, while prices in other regions remained stable. Among them, Gansu silicon granule coal was 1,140 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal was 1,060 yuan/mt; Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon granule coal was 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was 855 yuan/mt.

Supply:

Despite a slight increase in demand recently, supply remained divergent. Some washing plants in individual regions continued to schedule production based on sales, while others with relatively high inventory pressure saw a slight downward trend in actual transaction prices for destocking.

Demand:

Although demand showed growth, it was still primarily rigid demand, with monthly orders being followed up. To control costs, the sentiment to push for lower prices remained strong.

Silicon Metal

Price:

Yesterday, SMM’s oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was around 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract consolidated at lows of 8,300 yuan/mt. Silicon enterprises held prices firm, with low willingness to sell at significant discounts. With futures prices at lows, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, keeping silicon metal prices stagnant at lows.

Production:

In July, silicon metal production varied across different regions. A small amount of capacity maintenance or temporary shutdowns in the north affected short-term output, while operating capacity increases in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia led to higher production. Total silicon metal production in July increased MoM from June.

Inventory:

SMM statistics show that as of July 16, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 540,000 mt, a WoW decrease of 13,000 mt (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.), primarily due to increased cargo pick-up and more goods in transit.

Price

DMC: The most-traded transaction prices were 11,500-11,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 11,650 yuan/mt. Under the continuous drag of weak demand and upstream enterprises' production cuts falling short of expectations, inventory accumulation and shipment obstacles led to an overall oversupply in the industry, causing upstream enterprises to compete in low-price sales, which pushed transaction prices further downward.

D4: Yesterday’s quoted prices were 12,500-13,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 12,750 yuan/mt.

107 Silicone Rubber: Yesterday’s quoted prices were 12,000-12,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 12,250 yuan/mt.

Silicone Gum: Yesterday’s quoted prices were 13,200-13,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 13,350 yuan/mt.

Silicone Oil: Yesterday’s quoted prices were 14,200-14,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of about 14,450 yuan/mt.

Production:

With the gradual resumption of production at some previously shut-down monomer facilities and a slight increase in operating rates, overall supply showed an increase.

Inventory:

Amid persistently weak demand and strong market wait-and-see sentiment, downstream clients are still mainly purchasing on a need-to basis in small orders, causing slow shipments for upstream enterprises and continued inventory buildup under pressure.

Polysilicon

Price:

Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon is quoted at 30.6-33 yuan/kg, with relatively few orders signed at present. However, as the conference convenes, some enterprises hold strong expectations for H2 policies, believing a series of related measures will follow, and market sentiment has improved.

Production

China's production continued to rise in July, mainly due to production ramp-ups in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places. Currently, August is also showing an upward trend.

Inventory:

Inventory continued to accumulate, with limited order signings and limited orders being fulfilled. Downstream inventory growth has stalled due to the slowdown in order signing.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.82-0.86 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers 0.93-0.97 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers 1.13-1.17 yuan/piece. With further tightening of wafer energy consumption standards and expectations of upstream price hikes, wafer enterprises have adopted a wait-and-see approach, awaiting the conference outcome before deciding pricing strategies. Currently, wafer prices are already approaching cash cost, so the likelihood of another significant decline is relatively small.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey, a top-tier player officially cut production in the last week of the month, with an overall reduction of approximately 1GW. Overall, July production schedule decreased about 4% MoM from June, mainly because wafer prices recently fell below cash cost. In addition, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing have undergone adjustments.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises' inventory buildup shows a diverging trend, with top-tier players' inventory already exceeding reasonable levels. Bonded zone inventory orders destined for India saw marginally weakening demand, while multiple African countries have emerged as top export destinations.

High-purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand 20,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. The 33-inch quartz crucible is priced at 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and the 36-inch quartz crucible at 6,500-6,800 yuan/piece. Recently, overall quartz sand and crucible prices have basically remained stable, with significant improvement in domestic price involution.

Production

In July, China's planned production of high-purity quartz sand increased by about 5% MoM, while domestic silicon wafer output saw a slight reduction. After crucible prices stopped falling and stabilized, order demand improved somewhat. High-purity quartz sand enterprises are aligning production plans with crucible demand, and demand for PV-grade high-purity quartz sand for semiconductor use has recently begun to pick up.

Inventory

In July, imported sand inventory continued to climb. In Q3 2026, silicon wafer enterprises are expected to purchase crucibles rationally according to planned production volumes, keeping the overall quartz sand inventory level on the rise.