Gold, silver and oil all rose, most metals gained, LME copper and coking coal rose nearly 2%, and LME tin, LME nickel, COMEX silver and SHFE silver led gains [Overnight market].

SMM July 22 news:

In the metals market:

Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%.

Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%.

In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%.

In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%.

As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices:

Macro front

Domestic market:

[State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App)

[Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The newly commissioned project is currently the leading demonstration project for hydrogen production from industrial tail gas and resource utilization in south-west China. Relying on the surplus coke oven gas resources of the local steel industry, the project employs an independently developed full-process technology for component separation, converting industrial tail gas originally used for power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ of 99.999% fuel cell-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas annually, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News)

On the dollar front:

The overnight US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21.

Rising oil prices pressured the interest rate market, and market expectations for the Fed to raise rates in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, believes that energy price fluctuations should dictate the Fed's policy decisions. (Wall Street News)

According to CME FedWatch: July probabilities: unchanged (74.9%), cumulative 25 bp hike (25.1%); September probabilities: unchanged (28.9%), cumulative 25 bp hike (55.7%), cumulative 50 bp hike (15.4%). (Jinshi Data APP)

In addition, according to a Reuters poll, 78 out of 104 economists (compared with 78 of 102 in last month’s survey) expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026.

On the macro front:

Today will see the release of the UK’s June CPI m/m, June RPI m/m, and other data.

On the crude oil front:

Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%.

The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and Houthi forces announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunged 34% in two weeks. (Wall Street News)

On the data front: US crude oil inventories rose last week. For the week ending July 17, API crude oil inventories: +2.603 million barrels (expected -500,000, prior -564,000); API gasoline inventories: -1.379 million barrels (expected -1.81 million, prior -1.664 million).

Furthermore, Iraq’s oil minister stated that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements signed between the Iraqi Oil Ministry and US companies is expected to reach $200 billion.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), stated that the recent escalation of hostile acts against energy infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas has exacerbated concerns over global energy supply security and added uncertainty to the market outlook. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as a crucial passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, faces threats that further exacerbate these concerns. But he also noted that the crude oil market is still supported by several buffer factors. Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply via alternative transportation routes, and some crude oil is still being exported through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that Gulf crude oil exports, while below the end-June peak, are still significantly above levels from March to mid-June. Furthermore, increased exports from oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China's nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves, member countries have released about 290 million barrels to the market, with the ongoing release of emergency inventories providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data APP)

NYMEX WTI crude oil August futures, affected by contract rollover, will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on July 22, and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. In addition, some trading platforms' US crude oil contract expiration is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please be extra cautious.