Available supply remains tight, Shanghai spot copper premiums hit a new high for the year [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jul 20, 2026 13:58

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 66,100 mt, down 10,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, while Jiangsu recorded 19,600 mt, up 100 mt WoW from last Thursday. Available spot supply remains tight, hovering at a low for the year, with the destocking trend unchanged, pushing the center of spot premiums higher and hitting a new high for the year. Meanwhile, the spot price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened further, opening the window for cross-regional shipments. According to SMM, some suppliers have already initiated cargo transfers from Guangdong to Shanghai, with the shipped copper cathode expected to arrive in the Shanghai market this week. If arrivals are substantial, this could provide marginal relief to the current tight spot market. However, given the limited scale of near-term arrivals and the fact that absolute inventory levels remain low, the downward pressure on premiums is expected to be relatively limited. On balance, with tightness in available supply persisting in the near term, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow.

SMM, July 20:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot against the current-month 2608 contract was quoted at premiums of 390-480 yuan/mt, with an average of 435 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. During the morning session, the SHFE copper 2608 contract showed a pattern of retreat after rapid rise, stabilizing, then rising again. The opening price was 104,100 yuan/mt, after which the price rose to 104,300 yuan/mt. Copper prices then mostly traded between 104,130 and 104,280 yuan/mt, before falling rapidly to a session low of 103,910 yuan/mt. After small fluctuations, prices stabilized and then rose, trading mostly between 104,140 and 104,260 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 104,350 yuan/mt during the session, with a closing price of 104,180 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread for the month-ahead contract ranged from 140 to 180 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract for the current month ranged from a loss of 230 yuan/mt to a loss of 160 yuan/mt.

Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was at 3.3, up 0.08 WoW, while purchasing sentiment was at 3.02, down 0.07 WoW. Historical data can be queried in the database. In early morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper premiums at 400-450 yuan/mt, with Lufang and Xiangguang quoted at 420-450 yuan/mt, and Tiefeng and Yuguang quoted at 400-430 yuan/mt; subsequently, more quotes emerged, with some suppliers slightly lowering offers, and Tiefeng and Jinguan traded at premiums around 370-420 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Jinchuan (plate), Jindun (plate), and Guixi was quoted at 480-500 yuan/mt premiums. In the second session, available supply tightened further, making low-priced cargo scarce, and non-registered copper traded at premiums of around 240-280 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 66,100 mt, down 10,400 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu recorded 19,600 mt, up 100 mt WoW from last Thursday. Current available spot supply remains tight, staying at an annual low, with the destocking trend intact, pushing spot premium centers higher and hitting new annual highs. Meanwhile, the spot price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has further widened, opening the window for inter-regional shipment. SMM learned that some suppliers have started shipping cargo from Guangdong to Shanghai, and the dispatched copper cathode is expected to arrive in the Shanghai market this week. If arrivals are significant, it may offer marginal relief to the current tight supply situation. However, given the limited volume of near-term arrivals and the still-low absolute inventory level, the pressure on premiums is expected to be relatively limited. Overall, against a backdrop of tight available supply extending in phases, Shanghai spot copper against the 2608 contract is expected to maintain premiums tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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