Metals Show Mixed Performance, LME Lead, LME Nickel, and SHFE Lead Rise Over 1%, Gold and Silver Pull Back, SHFE Silver Falls Over 3% [Overnight Quotes]

SMM, July 17:

In the metals market:

Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME copper and SHFE copper falling together—LME copper declined 0.28% and SHFE copper eased 0.08%. LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE lead all gained, with LME lead up 1%, LME nickel up 1.66%, and SHFE lead up 1.57%. Gains in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract fell 0.59%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.52%.

Overnight in ferrous metals, stainless steel advanced 1.16%, iron ore rose 0.79%, and gains in rebar and hot-rolled coil were within 1%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal added 0.36% and coke edged up 0.08%.

Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold dropped 1.77% and COMEX silver tumbled 2.9%, touching an intraday low of $55.595/oz, its lowest since November 2025. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.34% and SHFE silver slumped 3.15%. Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price target to $4,533/oz, citing central bank reserve diversification and expectations that the US Fed will only hike rates once or twice at most over the coming year. (Jinshi Data APP)

Overnight closing prices as of 6:41 on July 17:

Macro Front

China:

[Ministry of Commerce Responds to Progress on Resolving Nexperia Semiconductor Issues] At a routine press conference on the 16th, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong responded to questions on progress in resolving issues concerning Nexperia, stating that since China and the Netherlands established an open and pragmatic comprehensive cooperative partnership more than a decade ago, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has continuously deepened. On July 7, Dutch Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Schreinemacher visited China. Minister Wang Wentao co-chaired the 18th meeting of the China-Netherlands Joint Committee on Economic and Trade Cooperation, where the two sides held candid, in-depth exchanges on China-Netherlands and China-EU economic and trade relations. Both sides agreed that governments should create a favorable environment, encouraging enterprises to resolve disputes through consultation and safeguarding the security and stability of global semiconductor industrial and supply chains.

[US Initiates Anti-Circumvention Investigation on Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells] On July 13, 2026, in response to an application filed by US domestic companies First Solar, Inc., Hanwha Q CELLS USA Inc., Talon PV, Swift Solar, Great Lakes Solex PR, LLC, DYCM Power, LLC, Suniva Inc., and Silfab Solar Inc., the US initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on crystalline silicon solar cells (whether or not assembled into modules) originating in China. The investigation examines potential circumvention of US antidumping and countervailing duty orders via two scenarios: (1) Chinese-made parts are assembled into solar cells and modules in Ethiopia and then exported to the US through Ethiopia; (2) Chinese-made parts are assembled into solar cells in Ethiopia, then exported to Vietnam for module assembly before being re-exported from Vietnam to the US. On February 1, 2024, the US Department of Commerce initiated the second sunset reviews of the antidumping and countervailing duty orders on crystalline silicon solar cells imported from China. On June 7, 2024, the Department of Commerce issued the final results of the expedited second sunset review of the countervailing duty order. (China Trade Remedies Information)

US Dollar:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 100.72. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (2026 FOMC voting member) called for higher interest rates, stating that inflation does not appear to be sustainably returning to the central bank's 2% target. A modest increase in rates would better balance the outlook and risks under the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Artificial intelligence (AI) may eventually deliver a productivity surge, but for now, demand effects are pushing up prices as demand outstrips supply. (from Wall Street News APP)

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Policy is well-prepared and can be reconsidered if necessary. The current policy stance should support the labor market and allow inflation to resume its decline toward the 2% target as the effects of tariffs and energy price pass-through fade. In a scenario where inflation fails to begin cooling, it may be appropriate to re-examine the policy stance to ensure price stability is achieved. The current policy is well-positioned to respond to changes and will be shaped based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Firmly committed to restoring inflation to our 2% target, consistent with our dual mandate. The impact of the Middle East conflict on demand is expected to be mild, as the US is a net oil exporter and its economy has relatively low oil dependence. Two major developments are being closely monitored—the Middle East conflict and the popularization of artificial intelligence (AI). The current situation underscores a policy dilemma where tension exists between the dual mandate objectives. Each development cannot be viewed in isolation; policy must be formulated considering overall economic conditions. Energy shocks and trade policy shocks are compounding one another, with the latter already impacting output and prices at least in the short run. Successive shocks bring the risk that inflation becomes entrenched and inflation expectations become de-anchored. The economic shocks from AI could have lasting effects on both supply and demand. If the demand effects from AI infrastructure and consumption arrive ahead of AI's productivity dividends, AI could exert upward pressure on inflation. If AI's productivity dividends reduce production costs more quickly, it could generate downward pressure on inflation. (from Wall Street News APP)

According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. The probability of holding rates steady through September is 48.8%, with a 46.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 5.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jinshi Data)

Macro front:

Today will see the release of US June housing starts (annualized), US June building permits, US June import price index (MoM), US June industrial production (MoM), the preliminary US July one-year inflation expectations, the preliminary US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone June final CPI (YoY), the Eurozone June final CPI (MoM), and other data.

Additionally, China's refined oil products will see a new pricing window open. The 2026 World AI Conference & High-Level Meeting on AI Global Governance will be held in Shanghai from July 17 to 20. President Xi Jinping will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a keynote speech. 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy; and US President Trump delivers a national address.

Crude Oil:

As of the overnight close, both benchmark oil prices fell—WTI crude slipped 0.03% and Brent crude edged down 0.11%. Tensions between the US and Iran persist, and Tehran appears unwilling to back down in the face of warnings from US President Donald Trump. The US military also stated that it assisted more than 10 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Nevertheless, shipping traffic remains significantly reduced. According to RBC Capital Markets data, the seven-day average of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has declined from 4.6 million bpd to 3.9 million bpd. (Bloomberg)

Sources: Crude oil loadings from all Iraqi oil terminals have been suspended following the drone collision with an oil tanker. (Jinshi Data APP)

According to Kpler data and a source with direct knowledge of flows, after months of restricted exports, Iraqi crude loadings more than doubled in the first half of July, averaging roughly 1.2 million bpd as shipments accelerated. Kpler data shows Iraq's crude exports averaged around 500,000 bpd in June. Despite the monthly increase, exports from Iraq's southern Basrah port remain far below pre-US-Iraq war levels—before March, average daily exports had exceeded 3.2 million bpd. (Reuters)