Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,870/mt and consolidated throughout the day, continuing the trend from the previous session. In early trading, LME lead attempted to reclaim the $1,900/mt level but failed. Entering the European session, LME lead drifted lower, trading around $1,885/mt, before finally closing at $1,885/mt, up 0.03%.
Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,690 yuan/mt, then quickly fell, hovering around 15,650 yuan/mt where it found support from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. In the latter part of the session, SHFE lead consolidated on a weak note, finally closing at 15,665 yuan/mt, down 0.29%; open interest was 639.91 million lots, down 201 lots from the previous trading day.
Macro Front:
China's July CPI YoY increase narrowed to 0.5%, while PPI rose 3.5% YoY; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the consumer price index rose 0.5% YoY in July. According to US media, Trump postponed military action against Iran, saying the Iran issue is being handled "low-key"; Iranian media reported that the parliament's National Security Committee approved the Strait of Hormuz security outline; Vance said the US-Iran conflict remains in the "middle game," with the US military "looking for an exit" and Iran putting forward "six conditions to reopen the strait"; Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery was attacked again, continuing to escalate threats to Middle East energy security.
:
Last Friday in the spot lead market, nonferrous metals broadly rose, while SHFE lead also continued to consolidate on a subdued note. Suppliers actively offered and sold, with regional differences between the north and south. In the southern regions, quotes were mainly at small premiums, with mainstream producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price for factory delivery. In the secondary lead sector, smelters gradually quoted and sold, with secondary refined lead quotes remaining at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price for factory delivery. Downstream enterprises were mostly on the sidelines, with few inquiries; some waited for lead prices to pull back to restock, and spot market trading was sluggish.
Inventory: As of August 7, LME lead inventory stood at 424,575 mt, down 3,850 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot inventory was 70,698 mt, down 919 mt from the previous week.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, the buildup of social inventory of lead ingots has been a normal phenomenon ahead of SHFE lead delivery. As delivery approaches this week, the movement of inventory by suppliers to delivery warehouses is expected to increase further, and visible inventory may continue to rise, putting some pressure on lead prices in the short term. However, on the supply side, maintenance at major delivery brand primary lead smelters is gradually kicking in, which is expected to become an important factor supporting lead prices in mid-to-late August. Short-term lead prices will continue to consolidate on a subdued note.
Data Source Statement: Other data, except for publicly available information, is based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM, for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.
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