Supply Continues to Ease, Bullish and Bearish News Intertwined! [SMM Daily Brief on Imported Ore]

[SMM HRC Daily Trading] On June 29, the total daily HRC trading volume of the sampled enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,790 mt, up 190 mt or 1.6% day-on-day, down 7.79% YoY (calendar) and up 8.76% YoY (lunar).

Today on the DCE iron ore futures first weakened and then strengthened, with contract I2609 finally closing at 746 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, and steel mills purchased on an as-needed basis, with spot transaction volumes remaining lackluster so far.

Today, the most-traded HRC contract traced an "N"-shaped pattern, closing at 3,319 with an intraday gain of 0.21%. Spot HRC prices were mostly stable, with some markets edging lower to facilitate transactions. On the supply side, no new rolling line maintenance was added this week, while previously idled lines gradually resumed production, leading to expectations of a slight increase in overall HRC output. On the demand side, current demand fully reflected off-season characteristics, with the market dominated by low-price deals. Amid the contango structure, some new hedging-related demand was released, though it remained cautious. On the cost side, the 9th round of coke price increases was about to take effect. Additionally, after the market closed, rumors circulated about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border, which may provide a short-term emotional jolt. Looking ahead, the fundamentals of sheets & plates themselves remain weak in the short term, lacking bullish support. The focus remains on the cost side, whether on sentiment fluctuations driven by physical realities or expectations. However, relatively speaking, the extent to which sheets & plates follow these swings is limited.