[SMM Iron Ore Daily Brief] Expectations for hot metal decline sharply! Short-term iron ore prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.

Today's iron ore futures trended weakly, with a slight recovery in the afternoon. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 749 yuan/mt, up 1.13%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell about 5-12 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, and steel mills' purchase willingness was also moderate. Spot trading volumes were mediocre so far.

Currently, supply-side pressure on iron ore has not yet become pronounced, and overall inventory is still on a destocking track. As of last weekend, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide was 145.13 million mt, down 2.03 million mt WoW; daily average port pick-up volume edged down 55,000 mt to 3.22 million mt. Meanwhile, blast furnace maintenance intensity further increased. According to SMM statistics, this week's hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance was 1.3584 million mt, up 67,500 mt WoW. Next week's hot metal impact is estimated at 1.5097 million mt, up 151,300 mt WoW from this week. Demand side, it is therefore expected to keep weakening. From the perspective of overall supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. [SMM Steel]