Macro sentiment dominates the sharp catch-up decline, and amid weak supply and demand, it enters a consolidation and recovery period [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary, June 29, 2026

Market Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract experienced sharp catch-down losses last week, with its trend deeply hijacked by macro sentiment, fluctuating widely within the range of 375,000-410,000 yuan/mt. At the start of the week, hawkish signals from the US Fed and continued strength in the US dollar index, which broke above the 101 mark, created systemic pressure. Coupled with the drag from a sharp sell-off in overseas chip stocks, SHFE tin breached multiple round-number levels, briefly dipping to around 375,000 yuan/mt during the session on the 26th before staging a V-shaped reversal. In the spot tin ingot market, trading pace improved notably as the price center shifted sharply lower. Early in the week, when prices were still high, downstream users only placed a small number of tentative orders. As futures quickly pulled back to the 390,000-380,000 yuan/mt range, pent-up rigid demand and restocking needs were activated and released in a concentrated manner, leading to a pickup in inquiries and trading sentiment; downstream enterprises showed a pattern of purchasing the dip in batches.

Market Forecast: On the macro front, the strongly hawkish signal released after the US Fed's June policy meeting dominated a systemic pullback in global risk assets. The new chair reinforced a "price stability first" stance, and the dot plot expectations were revised up alongside firm US economic data, pushing the US dollar index to a 13-month high during the week. Real rates and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, and concerns about a pullback in AI capex triggered by tech stock valuation de-rating weakened the structural narrative that had previously supported tin prices. Macro selling pressure became the core driver of the sharp decline in tin prices. Tin market fundamentals presented a game between tight ore supply and a demand off-season, with both supply and demand weak but marginal pressure transmitting first. In terms of supply, the tightness in tin ore has not fundamentally eased, but signals of marginal improvement increased. Smelters mostly focused on stable production in June, with actual reductions limited. On the demand side, the traditional consumption off-season continued to deepen. Downstream solder and electronics enterprises generally maintained a strategy of purchasing as needed, with heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Only after tin prices briefly and sharply dropped to key psychological levels were some previously suppressed rigid-demand restocking orders triggered. Overall spot trading was subdued, with little willingness to chase higher prices, and demand-side absorption remained weak. In summary, last week tin prices underwent a swift and deep correction driven by the resonance of hawkish macro expectations, a strong US dollar, and a price collapse among bulls, breaking multiple round-number levels. Although a technical repair emerged in the latter half of the week as the US dollar pulled back slightly and LME stabilized, the rebound was driven more by short-covering than by fresh fundamental drivers. Spot prices lagged the recovery, creating a risk of divergence between futures and spot. Looking ahead to this week, tin prices are expected to enter a window of consolidation and repair after the sharp decline, but the cloud of macro tightening expectations has not lifted, which will cap the rebound's upside. Whether prices can stabilize above key support levels will depend on downstream acceptance of current price levels and whether a new round of restocking can be sustained. The Chinese market lacks clear upward momentum for now. We advise investors to remain cautious and on the sidelines in the short term, watching closely the battle between bulls and bears at key support levels for SHFE tin, changes in spot premiums, and macro policy and data guidance. Avoid blindly rushing to buy amid continuous price rise.