[SMM Analysis] Loose Supply-Demand Dynamics Leave Electrolytic Manganese Price Stagnant

Trading activity in China's electrolytic manganese market remained sluggish this week. After an earlier decline, mainstream spot prices have stabilized at a transaction level of 17,800 yuan per ton.

The steel sector is now in its traditional off-season, while purchasing demand from new energy end-users has also weakened, leading to a notable slowdown in overall consumption. Steel mills and supporting enterprises only place sporadic orders to meet daily production needs, with no large-scale restocking activities seen across the market. Traders and end buyers adopt a wait-and-see stance, resulting in persistently low trading volume.

A loose supply side continues to weigh on market sentiment. Operating rates across the industry stay high with steady output, leaving abundant goods in circulation. The worsening supply surplus stands as a major barrier to price increases. Meanwhile, prices of raw materials including manganese ore and sulfuric acid remain firm, forming a solid cost support for electrolytic manganese. Manufacturers face high production costs and are reluctant to cut prices substantially.

Amid weak demand and ample supply, market sentiment is muted. Downstream buyers show limited willingness to procure goods and resist high quotations, leaving the market lacking upward momentum. Overall, there are no tangible positive factors to drive a market recovery. Suppressed by slack seasonal demand and oversupply, prices are unable to rise despite solid cost support. Market participants expect electrolytic manganese prices to move sideways in the short term. The market will remain in a weak state with little room for upside gains.