Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Commentary (June 11, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review]

This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic markets plunging synchronously. The price center shifted significantly lower WoW, hitting a near two-month low. Non-farm payrolls data triggered the first sharp sell-off: US May non-farm payrolls data released on June 5 showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations of 85,000, with the previous two months' figures revised up by a combined 93,000, while the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes surged sharply, dealing a heavy blow to silver. On June 10, US May CPI data came out, rising 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM, further cementing expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. This, coupled with the worsening US-Iran conflict, with the US military striking Iran for two consecutive days, suggested the US Fed is expected to be hard-pressed to release dovish signals in the near term. On the industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingot mainstream quotations against the TD contract in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW. Mainstream quotations were generally at parity or a slight premium, with most transactions settling within the range of parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg against the SGE TD contract. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiries were relatively active. Regarding inventory, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to the price drop, leading to overall destocking of silver ingot social inventory in Shanghai and Shenzhen. For the gold/silver ratio, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened to 67.2 from 63.8 the previous week, highlighting silver's more pronounced weakness relative to gold under macro pressure.

[Key Data]

Bearish

US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, demonstrating stronger-than-expected labor market resilience.

US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, as inflationary pressure resurged.

Hawkish stance has been clear since Warsh took office as Fed Chairman, with subsequent official remarks continuing to signal tightening.

India's silver import control policies persist, impacting physical consumption demand.

Bullish:

Peru's energy crisis continues, with the nationwide state of emergency extended to year-end. Twelve large mines have already implemented staggered production. May silver production is expected to fall by 5%-8%. The global supply-demand gap persists, providing some floor support for silver prices.

[Near-Term Focus]

June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh's post-meeting press conference (Core Event)

June 18: US May retail sales data

June 20: Preliminary University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index for June

Key focus: US Fed official speeches and the latest developments in US-Iran negotiations.

[Price Forecast]

Next week, silver is expected to maintain a pattern of consolidating at lows while seeking a bottom, still in a macro high-pressure environment. The US Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, and the market will closely monitor Waller's speech and the Fed's latest guidance on the rate path. If the Fed sends a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may fall further; if the meeting outcome is dovish, silver may see a rebound from oversold conditions. On China's fundamentals side, downstream procurement has slightly recovered, the selling pressure on low-price spot cargo has eased to some extent, and social inventories of spot silver ingots are destocking overall. As most enterprises remain cautious with heavy fear of falling prices, the mainstream spot premiums/discounts in the market are expected to stay within the range from parity with the SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, and the market is unlikely to shift quickly to higher premiums in the short term.