SMM June 4 News:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all dropped more than 1%. SHFE tin fell 0.86%. SHFE nickel fell 2.55%.
In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 2.02%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures extended the decline from the previous three trading days, falling another 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.95%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.47%, rebar dropped 0.38%, hot-rolled coil dropped 0.32%, and stainless steel dropped 2.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 4.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.25%.
Overseas market base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.09%, LME aluminum fell 0.12%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell less than 0.3%.
Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.58%, and COMEX silver fell 0.05%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.2%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.93%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.44%, closing at 3,758 points.
As of 11:45 on June 4, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:
Spot Cargo and Fundamentals
Aluminum:On June 4, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,130, down 190, at a discount of 190 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 60 (unit: yuan/mt). Futures stopped rising and turned lower today, while South China spot cargo bucked the trend and stabilized with an improving tone...
Macro Front
China:
[MIIT: From January to April, China's Value-Added of Above-Designated-Scale Electronic Information Manufacturing Up 14% YoY]From January to April, the value-added of above-designated-scale electronic information manufacturing was up 14% YoY, with the growth rate 8.4 and 1.4 percentage points higher than that of overall industry and high-tech manufacturing over the same period, respectively. In April, the value-added of above-designated-scale electronic information manufacturing was up 15.6% YoY. Among major products, mobile phone production reached 452 million units, up 0.3% YoY, of which smartphone production reached 390 million units, up 6.5% YoY; micro-computer equipment production was 95.426 million units, down 10% YoY; integrated circuit production was 176.97 billion units, up 24.7% YoY. (MIIT WeChat Official Account)
[State Grid Corporation of China's Peak Summer Electricity Load Expected to Exceed 1.3 Billion kW, Up About 6% YoY] According to State Grid Corporation of China, it is estimated that the maximum electricity load in the State Grid Corporation of China's operating area this summer will exceed 1.3 billion kW, up about 6% YoY. To fully ensure safe power grid operation and reliable electricity supply, State Grid Corporation of China is accelerating supply assurance capacity construction, continuously improving market-based electricity trading, and promoting efficient utilization of clean energy. Currently, 168 key projects for the summer peak are under accelerated construction. (CCTV)
PBOC announced that, based on the demand of primary dealers in open market operations, the volume of 7-day reverse repo operations on June 4 was zero. A total of 101.3 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today.
US dollar:
As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.04%, at 99.5. According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut.
US Fed's Logan stated that Fed officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation down to the 2% target. She noted that the US labour market is "broadly in balance," investment in artificial intelligence is booming, and financial conditions remain "accommodative." However, she added that the current inflation trajectory does not appear to be pulling back toward the Fed's 2% target. "These conditions suggest that current monetary policy is not restraining the economy," and "I am increasingly concerned that achieving a full restoration of price stability, while appropriately balancing both sides of the Fed's dual mandate, may require raising interest rates later this year."
The US Fed Beige Book noted that overall, prices rose at a moderate to strong pace, with most districts reporting inflation rates higher than in the previous report. Districts cited energy costs related to the Middle East conflict as a major driver of inflationary pressures, with impacts spreading to shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizers. Non-labour costs continued to rise faster than selling prices, raising broader concerns about margin compression. The ability to pass on higher costs varied across industries, particularly among consumer-facing companies. Some districts noted that enterprises across multiple regions adopted strategies to cope with inflation, including supply chain optimization, product adjustments, reduced supply, and temporarily absorbing higher costs to maintain client demand. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data:
Data to be released today include US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, eurozone April retail sales MoM, Switzerland May CPI MoM, and Switzerland May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate.
In addition, at 2:00, the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions. 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a speech. At 15:00, the Ministry of Commerce will hold the first regular press conference in June, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will participate in a fireside chat. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak at the Investment Association conference.
Crude oil:
As of 11:45, both benchmarks fell. WTI crude fell 0.94%, and Brent crude fell 1.03%. According to CCTV News, on local time June 3, US President Trump said that negotiations with Iran were going very well and a new round of talks could take place this weekend. Once an agreement is signed, the Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen. (Jin10 Data APP) Expectations of an end to the Middle East conflict put oil prices under pressure.
Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan said that reports indicated that, under US guidance, Israel and Lebanon had reached a ceasefire framework agreement, with both sides set to resume full talks during the week of June 22, on the condition that Hezbollah must fully withdraw from southern Lebanon. The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market will digest this headline and largely view it as a priced-in factor. (Jin10 Data APP)
The US-Iran conflict is pushing the global oil market toward a tipping point. US crude oil and petroleum product inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in over two decades, while US crude oil exports hit a record high in May, rapidly depleting domestic reserves. Analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could surge sharply within weeks. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, for the week ending May 29, total US crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 10.6 million barrels from the previous week to 1.57 billion barrels,the lowest level since 2004. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 8 million barrels in a single week to 433.7 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive weekly decline, far exceeding analysts' prior expectations of a 3.3 million barrel draw. (Wallstreetcn)
Spot Market Overview:
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