Ivanhoe Mines warns of Strait of Hormuz closure risk; overnight LME copper and SHFE copper both close higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, April 15, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,181.5/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to touch a low of $13,139.5/mt, then the price center moved up steadily to touch a high of $13,305/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing at $13,296/mt, up 1.31%, with trading volume at 25,300 lots and open interest at 289,300 lots, down 2,580 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a low of 101,580 yuan/mt, then the price center moved sharply upward to probe 102,220 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to ultimately close at 102,150 yuan/mt, up 1.44%, with trading volume at 42,000 lots and open interest at 165,300 lots, down 2,780 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On April 13 (Monday), Ivanhoe Mines founder and co-chairman Robert Friedland warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have "profound" impacts on global supply chains, driving up sulphur and sulphuric acid prices and triggering a supply deficit, which would in turn severely hit copper producers. Approximately 20% of global copper supply relies on processes that use sulphuric acid to leach copper from oxide ore. Friedland stated that with approximately 50% of global seaborne sulphur supply cut off, "the sulphur and sulphuric acid markets are becoming extremely tight." Friedland said in Ivanhoe Mines' Q1 production report on Monday: "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, we are particularly concerned about whether the raw materials needed for ongoing mine operations can be secured. As the world's most important industrial chemical, a sulphuric acid shortage will have secondary derivative effects on global copper production."
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 14, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened with a gap-up and then moved sideways with a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 100,540 yuan/mt, and after opening, prices jumped to touch a high of 101,360 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly, fluctuating between 100,700 yuan/mt and 101,200 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 100,770 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 100 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper front-month import profit margin ranged from a loss of 50 yuan/mt to a profit of 50 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, today is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2604 contract. In accordance with the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. From a market structure perspective, copper prices rose intraday, but the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts still maintained a certain width, and suppliers showed a certain willingness to hold prices firm. According to SMM, after copper prices returned above the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, orders from downstream enterprises decreased notably, and demand-side support weakened somewhat. In addition, some suppliers had already begun making tentative offers against the next-month contract intraday. As SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, based on the price spread conversion, the passive premium space after the contract rollover is limited. Spot prices against the front-month contract are expected to show a slight premium or near parity today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 14, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,080 yuan/mt, up 2,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,980 yuan/mt, up 2,145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices surged significantly and premiums rose in tandem, weakening spot trades.
(3) Imported copper: On April 14, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $74/mt (price range $70-78/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $72/mt (price range $66-78/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $41/mt (price range $36-46/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 14, the 11:30 futures closing price was 100,770 yuan/mt, up 1,990 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 65 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices rose 1,600 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.64, while the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.35. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 502 yuan/mt, up 42 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,560 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices steadily climbed, an increasing number of copper scrap suppliers shipped out goods, while downstream purchase willingness generally increased due to concerns that continued copper price rises would make it difficult to procure sufficient copper scrap, resulting in active intraday transactions.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump said US-Iran talks may be held in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, though the time and location remained undetermined. The US Treasury will terminate Iran oil sanctions waivers on April 19 and warned of invoking secondary sanctions. Sources said Iran was considering suspending shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to leverage negotiations, while the US military had no plans to fire on Iranian oil tankers. Israel and Lebanon agreed to launch direct negotiations. The US March PPI came in at 4%, below the expected 4.6%. Optimism over US-Iran peace talks combined with weaker-than-expected economic data put the US dollar index under pressure, which was bullish for copper prices. On the fundamentals front, supply side, imported copper continued to arrive, while domestic arrivals were relatively low. Demand side, consumption support weakened somewhat due to rising copper prices. Overall, spot copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward within a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]