China's Secondary Aluminum Alloy Ingot Inventory Down 48 mt, Destocking Continues

The 2026 revision improves transparency through moisture and silica adjustments, but Indonesia’s bauxite HPM remains structurally above domestic transaction levels, reinforcing its role as a fiscal reference price rather than a true market-clearing mechanism.

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Closed Higher in Overnight Session, Spot Cargo Remained Stable] The aluminum alloy 2606 contract opened at 23,760 yuan/mt during the night session. After the opening, futures prices rose steadily, with prices running above the average price line throughout the session, showing a solid trend structure. Futures saw a slight increase in open interest simultaneously, with open interest edging higher. Volume and momentum were well-coordinated during the rise, and the price center continued to shift upward. Prices during the night session ranged from 23,695 to 23,920 yuan/mt. Prices moved sideways at highs near the close with no notable pullback, and the daily candlestick ultimately closed at 23,890 yuan/mt, up 0.84% for the day.