[SMM Insight] Multiple Post-Holiday Catalysts Push Tungsten Market Into Big Bull Run

SMM, February 27: After the Chinese New Year, the tungsten market got off to a good start, re-entering an accelerated uptrend and repeatedly hitting new highs. Tight supply of upstream products at the ore and smelting ends persisted, driving prices sharply higher. With raw material inventories at low levels in downstream sectors such as cemented carbide and high-speed steel, enterprises were forced to frequently adjust product selling prices.

As of now, SMM 65% black tungsten concentrate closed at 777,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 23,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; YTD, it was up 71.4% and up 443.7% YoY. SMM APT closed at 116.5 yuan/mt; YTD, it was up 73.9% and up 452% YoY. SMM tungsten powder closed at 1,850 yuan/kg; YTD, it was up 70.5% and up 485% YoY. In the afternoon, actual transactions and negotiations were already above quotes; spot order prices fluctuated quickly, and the market entered a case-by-case negotiation mode.

Drivers of post-holiday tungsten price surge

① Holiday factors and intensified inspections in major producing areas reduced domestic tungsten mine operating rates.

Domestic tungsten ore reserves and production both ranked first globally. Tungsten is a strategically scarce mineral and is included in the Catalogue of Specific Minerals Under Protective Mining, subject to total mining volume control (annual quota system). In 2025, domestic mining quotas were tightened. In addition, major producing areas stepped up crackdowns on illegal mining and strictly investigated behaviors such as selling tungsten ore without invoices, leading to a notable decline in the industry’s operating rate. Moreover, 50% of domestic tungsten ore resources are controlled by top-tier enterprises; such ore is mostly for internal use, with limited spot order circulation in the market, exacerbating tight supply of tungsten resources. Before the holiday, some mines halted or cut production due to holiday factors and the absence of new mining quotas; after the holiday, these mines still needed time to resume operations, resulting in difficulties for smelters to restock and a pronounced supply-demand mismatch. Quotes remained firm, and transaction prices jumped significantly.

② Overseas tungsten markets surged sharply, increasing ore procurement costs; instability in Myanmar raised expectations of reduced imports.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas tungsten market prices rose. As of February 26, SMM data showed that APT price CIF Rotterdam was $1,800-1,900/mtu, averaging $1,850/mtu (equivalent to an estimated domestic ex-VAT price of about 1.13 million yuan/mt), up 85% YTD. APT in the European market mostly comes from Asia; during the holiday, shipments from Asia declined, stimulating a rapid surge in overseas market prices. As of now, Vietnamese smelters had many orders and had stopped quoting, and overseas market circulation was tightening. Some enterprises increased purchases of tungsten ore from South America, Africa, and elsewhere; overseas tungsten ore transaction prices also mostly rose in tandem. As the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, profitability of tungsten ore imports declined and even turned negative, reducing some traders’ willingness to purchase. In addition, armed conflicts recently occurred in many areas of Myanmar. Myanmar’s tungsten-tin mines are mostly located in the northern part of the country. Although the main mining areas have not yet been affected by the war, local transportation has been disrupted. Some Chinese import traders adopting a wait-and-see stance on entering Myanmar to buy ore. Therefore, tungsten ore imports from Myanmar are expected to show a downward trend from March to April. According to customs data, in 2025, total domestic tungsten ore imports from Myanmar were about 5,175 mt, accounting for 25% of total imports, making it China’s second-largest source of tungsten ore imports.

③ Long-term contract price hikes by leading enterprises boosted bullish sentiment. 

Multiple tungsten enterprises continued to raise long-term contract quotes for the second half of February, as follows:

The long-term contract procurement quotes for the second half of February from a tungsten company in Chongyi were: 1. 55% black tungsten concentrate: 730,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 60,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2. 55% scheelite concentrate: 729,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 60,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3. Ammonium paratungstate (ultra-high-purity product that complies with the GB/T 10116-2007 standard, with the total content of major impurities (non-tungsten elements) no greater than 177.5 ppm): 1.07 million yuan/mt, up 100,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. 

A long-term contract quote sheet dated February 25 from a tungsten company in Guangdong showed: After research, the company decided that the VAT-included unit prices for tungsten raw materials under long-term contracts for the second half of February 2026 were as follows: Unit price for black tungsten concentrate with grade above 55%: 730,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). Unit price for scheelite concentrate with grade above 55%: 729,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). Unit price for ammonium paratungstate: 1,070,000 yuan/mt. Note: The above unit prices include 13% VAT.

④ A US military AI model to set reference prices for critical minerals, injecting a strong strategic premium into the tungsten market. 

On February 26, the website of China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released news: According to a Reuters report cited by Mining.com, three informed sources revealed that the Trump administration is expected to use an AI model developed by the Pentagon to simulate reference prices for critical minerals for its proposed “global metals trading zone.” Trump administration officials initially focused OPEN’s AI pricing model on four minerals—germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten—before expanding to other minerals, with S&P Global and Finnish data company Rovjok providing data and other technical support. In essence, it sets a non-market price floor for critical minerals such as tungsten through a strategic security premium, ESG standards, and supply chain restructuring. In the short term, it directly strengthened bullish expectations and lifted the tungsten price center; in the medium term, it will stimulate overseas expansion of tungsten ore capacity and intensify global supply-chain “de-China-isation”; in the long term, it will impact China’s traditional pricing dominance in the tungsten industry chain, pushing tungsten from cost-based pricing toward strategic security pricing and further highlighting its strategically scarce attributes.

⑤ High-price pass-through triggered an uptrend across downstream industries such as cemented carbide, cutters, and tool steel. 

Driven by the surge in prices of core raw materials such as tungsten powder and tungsten carbide powder, taking tungsten powder as an example, the current mainstream market price has reached 1,850 yuan/kg, up 70.5% YTD and up 485% YoY. Moreover, powder product enterprises mostly negotiated deal by deal; due to upstream reluctance to sell, downstream cemented carbide enterprises faced challenges in raw material restocking. Recently, leading domestic cemented carbide enterprises have intensively raised product prices since late February 2026; some enterprises adjusted prices for the fourth time in the past three months. Some cutting tools enterprises hiked prices by 15%-20% to pass through costs and ensure supply and profitability, and the industry entered a broad-based, cost-driven price increase cycle. Downstream tungsten processing enterprises mostly set prices based on raw material costs plus processing fees, and product selling prices are heavily affected by raw materials. With the recent surge in powder product prices, enterprises found it difficult to lock in costs, and orders negotiations were mostly on a case-by-case basis. Taking tungsten-cobalt rods as an example, in 1 kg of tungsten-cobalt rods, the cost of tungsten carbide plus cobalt powder had already reached about 1,660 yuan, accounting for over 80% of total costs, and industry processing fees narrowed somewhat.

⑥ Slow resumption in the scrap tungsten recycling market

 The domestic scrap tungsten recycling market did not re-open immediately after the holiday, with relatively small scrap tungsten shipments. Secondary tungsten smelters faced difficulties in restocking raw materials, forcing them to turn to ore as an alternative and exacerbating tight supply at the ore end.

Conclusion: Overall, the current tungsten market continues to exhibit a tight supply-demand balance. Supply-side contraction, overseas demand boosts, strategic premiums, and downstream cost pass-through have jointly elevated tungsten prices.

• In the short term, mine restart progress, changes in tungsten ore imports from Myanmar and overseas market trends will directly affect price fluctuations; domestic tungsten concentrate mining quotas will mostly not be issued until April. Although some mines have been able to maintain normal production recently, they cannot make shipments, making the tight market circulation difficult to ease in the near term. In addition, given uncertainty in tungsten concentrate imports, tungsten ore prices will hardly fall in the short term
• Over the medium and long-term, tungsten’s strategic attributes remain strong. Global incremental supply from new tungsten ore production is limited. Demand for tungsten from high-end application fields, such as military and aerospace, are set to continue growing. As supply tightens within China, the global tungsten supply gap will widen, further influencing the long-term trajectory of the tungsten market. Overall, tungsten prices will remain bullish. Nevertheless, market players also need to watch out for market risks from rapid price increases and divergence in downstream ability to afford such high prices.