Tug-of-war between Longs and Shorts in Tin Market: Struggle Between Tight Supply and Off-season Demand [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract and LME Tin Contract on June 17, 2025

​​In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) continued its volatile pattern, opening at 264,400 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 265,560 yuan/mt and a low of 263,020 yuan/mt during the session, and closing at 263,490 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.39%. The price fluctuation range narrowed, with intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market, and trading activity slightly decreased compared to the previous day.

Demand for PV welding strips remained relatively resilient, but module production schedules fell MoM, contributing limited incremental demand for tin consumption. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high prices, maintaining just-in-time procurement only. Trading in the spot market was sluggish, with traders' daily trading volume reaching just over 10 mt.

In the afternoon session, attention should be paid to the resistance level at 263,000 yuan/mt. If the breakout lacks momentum, the price may retrace to the support level at 263,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

As of the midday session on June 17, the LME tin cash contract was quoted at $32,505/mt, down 0.14% from the previous day, with an intraday trading range of $32,500-32,630/mt.

European PV installation demand supported tin consumption, but electronic solder orders were dragged down by Sino-US tariff policies (such as the US tariff hike on Chinese consumer electronics), leading to structural differentiation in demand.

The short-term technical outlook for LME tin is weak. If it breaks below the support level at $32,500/mt, it may test the range of $31,000-32,000/mt. Attention should be paid to the US Fed meeting minutes and the actual progress of production resumptions in Myanmar. If macro sentiment improves or supply increases fall short of expectations, the price may recover to $33,000/mt.

Both SHFE tin and LME tin are currently in a tug-of-war phase between "tight supply reality but loose expectations" and "weak demand reality but strong expectations". The short-term market focus has shifted to the US Fed's policy signals and the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar. Investors are advised to open positions cautiously, focusing on range-bound operations, and pay attention to inventory changes and the impact of macro data on sentiment.