[SMM Analysis] Impact of US Tariffs on China on the Export Methods and Prices of China's ESS Battery Cells to the US - Exploring Three Methods: "Direct Export from China, Re-export via Malaysia, and US Domestic Production" (Part II)

Published: May 31, 2025 11:48 (GMT+8)

Save

[SMM Analysis] This is the second article in the series, aiming to analyze the impact of price changes on energy storage battery cells produced in China, exported directly, re-exported via Malaysia, and potentially produced locally in the US for LFP (for ESS) from August 13 to January 1, 2026. Some of the data values are relatively theoretical, so the results may appear high. The author will explain the reasons for each data value in detail to enable readers to replace the relevant data themselves and obtain more targeted conclusions. There will be a subsequent (Part III) article to analyze the impact of tariffs on prices after January 1, 2026.

This article is the second installment in a series exploring the impact of US tariffs on China on the export methods and pricing of Chinese ESS battery cells to the US, examining three approaches: "direct export from China, re-export via Malaysia, and domestic production in the US." The previous article mentioned that despite the current uncertainty surrounding US tariffs on China, the existing ESS tariff measures are divided into three periods: May 14, 2025, August 13, 2025, and January 1, 2026, with tariffs set at 40.9%, 64.9%, and 82.4%, respectively.

This article, the second in the series, aims to analyze the impact of price changes on Chinese-made ESS battery cells exported directly, re-exported via Malaysia, and potentially produced domestically in the US using LFP for ESS storage from August 13, 2025, to January 1, 2026. Some data values are theoretical, which may result in seemingly high outcomes. The author will explain the reasons for each data value in detail to enable readers to substitute relevant data independently for more targeted conclusions. A subsequent article, the third in the series, will analyze the price impact of tariffs after January 1, 2026.

Taking domestically produced 280Ah LFP ESS battery cells as an example:

The data sources and changes for each segment are shown in the table below: Direct export from China to the US:

The data sources and changes for each segment are shown in the table below: Re-export from China via Malaysia to the US:

The data sources and changes for each segment are shown in the table below: Domestic production of LFP battery cells in the US:

Based on the above calculations, considering the price of 0.609 yuan/Wh for battery cells exported directly from China from August 13, 2025, to January 1, 2026, re-exporting via Malaysia offers a 7.5% price advantage, while the cost of directly producing ESS battery cells in the US remains 4.6% higher than in China.

The above summary is as follows:

Note: Some calculated data were obtained through discussions and processing in the market, while more data were sourced from the average prices at various price points on the SMM official website. Additionally, in current practical operations, the cost increases resulting from US tariffs on China are mainly borne by overseas customers. Therefore, the results calculated in this article may be higher than the actual transaction prices.

SMM New Energy Industry Research Department

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lv Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

5 hours ago

Solid-State Battery Next Decade Series, Part 4 of 9: Will It Be Crushed Under the Wheels of PV-Style Industry-Wide Involution? [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery Next Decade Series 9, Part 4: Will It Be Dragged Under the Wheels of PV-Style Industry-Wide Involution?] Solid-state batteries will not face PV-style industry-wide involution in the short term: unconsolidated technology routes, high capital barriers, and yields of only 50%-60% serve as firewalls. From 2027 to 2029, there will be phased risks, including pilot-line surplus and localized price wars on the equipment side; after 2030, if technology routes consolidate, leading capacity is released, and demand growth slows, industry-wide involution could emerge, with intensity likely lower than in PV but with slower market exit. Given the lessons learned from PV, the solid-state battery industry is fully capable of avoiding involution.

5 hours ago

8 hours ago

MIIT Unveils 15th Five-Year Plan: Boost Safety, Performance in Consumer, NEV, and ESS Batteries

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and six other departments jointly issued the New-type Battery Industry Development 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan proposes to improve energy density, power density, and cycle life through process optimization, material upgrades, and structural innovation. It calls for developing high-safety consumer electronics lithium batteries, improving the safety, fast-charging performance, low-temperature adaptability, lightweight design, and energy density of power batteries for NEVs and electric vessels, and developing high-safety, large-capacity, grid-forming, ultra-long cycle life ESS batteries.

8 hours ago

Optimize Lithium Battery Industry, Enhance Coastal Urban Agglomerations, and Advance Manufacturing Clusters

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Battery Industry Development. It proposes optimizing the layout of the lithium battery industry in accordance with the principles of regional agglomeration and concentration of main entities. It guides various regions to leverage their comparative advantages and achieve differentiated and specialized coordinated development. It consolidates and enhances the role of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as driving forces for high-quality development, better leverages the role of coastal urban agglomerations such as Guangdong-Fujian-Zhejiang, and accelerates the cultivation of advanced manufacturing clusters for new-type batteries. Relying on the industrial foundations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Yellow River Basin, and the Northeast region, it promotes the strengthening, supplementation, quality improvement, and upgrading of the new-type battery industry chain. Based on the resources of the central and western regions, it enhances the resilience of the new-type battery industry chain.

8 hours ago