The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated at highs during the night session, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid-demand basis [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

July 15, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

The most-traded SHFE tin 2608 contract opened higher in the night session, then pulled back slightly and consolidated around 418,000 yuan/mt.

Macro:

(1) On July 14 local time, Bank of America released a report stating that due to the closure of older fabs caused by technology upgrades, South Korea's average annual wafer capacity growth rate in real terms will fall below 10%, far short of the official target of doubling by 2030. SK Hynix's additional memory capacity by 2028 may be only one-sixth of the original plan. Moreover, the construction and equipment installation period for Samsung's and SK Hynix's new large fabs in Gwangju and Jeolla could extend to a decade.
(2) According to people familiar with the matter, AI cloud computing company Coreweave (CRWV.O) is exploring the use of financial derivatives as a potential hedge against future declines in memory and storage chip prices. This unusual move highlights how the AI boom has tied cloud service providers closely to the wildly swinging chip market. To lock in supply, cloud operators including CoreWeave have signed long-term agreements with memory and storage chipmakers like Micron and SanDisk. Many of these agreements provide suppliers with price floors for DRAM and storage chips. However, this arrangement is a double-edged sword: it protects chipmakers from market downturns, but also exposes cloud service companies like CoreWeave to risk. If prices fall, they would be forced to continue purchasing at prices far above market levels. As a result, CoreWeave executives have discussed how to hedge against the risk of memory chip inventory devaluation that could result from future price drops. The discussions are in the early stages, and the company has not executed any hedges. The options discussed include put options and possibly other derivatives.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tightness in tin ore remains unresolved, but signals of marginal improvement are increasing. In July, most smelters are focusing on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect is deepening, with rigid demand support coexisting with high-price suppression. Downstream purchases are cautious, buying based on orders.

Spot market: In terms of transactions, morning session inquiries were sluggish — after tin prices consolidated at highs for consecutive days, downstream acceptance of levels above 410,000 yuan is limited; the solder sector is in the seasonal off-season, with purchases mainly based on rigid demand orders; although traders' willingness to sell has increased, actual purchases are not active. Under the overall pattern of weak supply and demand characterized by “normal shipments from smelters + downstream purchasing as needed,” actual spot transactions were sluggish.

[Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information are all processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]