China's Secondary Aluminum Alloy Ingot Inventory Down 81 mt, Continues Mild Destocking Trend

[SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing: The Geopolitical Situation in the Middle East Remains Unclear, and Aluminum Prices Still Have Upward Momentum in the Short Term] Overall, macro geopolitical risks are providing support at the bottom. Although the continued buildup in domestic social inventory is exerting bearish pressure on aluminum prices, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear. If the conflict continues, expectations for global aluminum supply to tighten are strong, and aluminum prices still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Has Seen Wide Swings for Many Days, While Alloys Rose Strongly in Tandem] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations shifting up significantly. Most producers raised prices by 500–600 yuan/mt. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen rapidly, providing a clear boost to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand remained relatively stable. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiries were generally average, while downstream procurement still mainly focused on restocking as needed. Supported by cost pressure and market expectations, enterprises showed a relatively clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend still depends on the recovery of end-use consumption. If orders in the die-casting industry increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further upward; if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued increase in the supply-side operating rate, prices will shift into high-level consolidation.