PV Aluminum Extrusion Operating Rate Remains Stable; Middle East Conflict and Aluminum Ingot Destocking Jointly Support Aluminum Prices [SMM Analysis]

SMM, July 9:

PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises continued its stable trend. Downstream frame module production schedules changed little during the week. Module enterprise production schedules are expected to increase by 3-4 GW in July, providing some support for frame demand. Some leading frame enterprises reported they would maintain full capacity this month and believe downstream module demand for frames will continue to increase in Q3, making them relatively optimistic about future production schedules. Overall, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term.

Raw Material Prices: During the period (July 6-9, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price was 22,942.5 yuan/mt, up 1.7% from the previous period. Overall, Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushed up risk premiums, while continued destocking of China's aluminum ingots supported aluminum prices to hold up well. However, the continuous ramp-up of aluminum capacity outside China and the US strong-dollar policy continue to cap aluminum's upside room, creating obvious pressure. Our comprehensive outlook is that aluminum prices will consolidate on a strong note but encounter resistance in the short term. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in a 22,400-23,400 yuan/mt range, and the LME aluminum price range is expected at $3,000-3,200/mt.