Crude Oil Surges, Base Metals Broadly Decline, LME Tin, SHFE Tin, LME Zinc, Stainless Steel Lead Losses, NY Silver Drops Over 4% [Overnight Market]

SMM July 9:

On the metal market front:

Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.22%, SHFE lead fell 0.09%, SHFE zinc fell 0.65%, SHFE tin fell 1.43%. SHFE nickel rose 0.51%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.22%, while the main cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.63%.

Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.03%, iron ore rose 0.54%, rebar rose 0.16%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke sector: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.26%.

On the overseas market overnight, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper fell 0.6%, LME aluminum fell 0.02%, LME lead rose 0.19%. LME zinc fell 1.2%. LME tin fell 1.54%. LME nickel rose 0.89%.

In the precious metals sector overnight : COMEX gold fell 1.7%, COMEX silver fell 4.3%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 1.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 3.88%.

As of 7:12 on July 9, the overnight closing market conditions:

Macro front

Domestic side:

[Xi Jinping Attends National Science and Technology Award Conference, Academicians' Conferences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the 11th National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology and Delivers Important Speech] Xi Jinping attended the National Science and Technology Award Conference, the Academicians' Conferences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the 11th National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, and delivered an important speech. Xi stressed the need to deeply integrate technological innovation with industrial innovation, and to open channels for accelerating the transformation of technology into real productive forces. Scientific and technological innovation should prioritize application-oriented approaches, while industrial innovation should raise scientific questions. Efforts should be made to strengthen the national technology transfer system, create diverse application scenarios and high-level industrial clusters, and promote the widespread application and iterative upgrading of independently developed technological products. The intellectual property protection system should be improved. A tech-financial system suitable for scientific and technological innovation should be established. (CCTV News)

[Central Bank Q2 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting: Strengthen Financial Support for Key Areas such as Expanding Domestic Demand, Technological Innovation, and Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises] The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its Q2 2026 regular meeting. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situation, believing that the current external environment is more complex and variable, global economic growth momentum is weak, geopolitical conflicts and economic and trade frictions are frequent and widespread, major economies' performance is diverging, and inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments are uncertain. China's economic performance is generally stable, improving in quality, and high-quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces problems and challenges such as strong supply but weak demand, structural differences, and external shocks. It is necessary to continue implementing an appropriately loose monetary policy, step up countercyclical and cross‑cyclical adjustments, better leverage the aggregate and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and promote steady economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices. The meeting noted the need to guide large banks in playing a leading role in financial services for the real economy, encourage small and medium‑sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and primary business, and enhance the capital strength of banks. Make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, improve tool management, solidly deliver the “five major financial articles”, and increase financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci‑tech innovation, and micro, small and medium‑sized enterprises. Continue to do a good job in financial services that support the development and growth of the private sector. Maintain the stable operation of financial markets. Effectively advance high‑level two‑way financial opening‑up, and enhance the capacity for economic and financial management as well as risk prevention and control under open conditions.

[CPCA: Passenger vehicle exports reached 877,000 units in June, up 82.3% YoY] According to CPCA data, passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) totalled 877,000 units in June, up 82.3% YoY and up 11.5% MoM, accounting for 37% of producer sales of passenger vehicles (36% last month and 19% in the same period of 2025). In June, new energy vehicles accounted for 56.9% of total exports, an increase of 16 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Exports of domestic brands reached 763,000 units in June, up 86% YoY; exports of joint venture and luxury brands totalled 114,000 units, up 61% YoY. (From Wallstreetcn APP)

On the US dollar front:

Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.02% to 101.07. The minutes of the US Fed’s June meeting showed that most officials thought inflation could stay high due to factors such as AI‑related demand, Middle East conflicts or tariffs, and participants’ inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 had been raised from April. The minutes also showed that a few officials explicitly made the case for raising interest rates at the meeting, although in the end all officials supported holding rates steady. (Wallstreetcn)

On the macro front:

Today’s data releases include China’s June CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, Germany’s May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending 4 July, and US June existing home sales (annualised). Also in focus: the US Fed releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech.

On the crude oil front:

Overnight, both oil futures continued to surge, extending the previous session’s rally, with WTI up 6.13% and Brent up 7.17%. Oil prices were supported by market concerns over supply triggered by an escalation of the Middle East conflict.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Donald Trump said during the NATO summit in Turkey on July 8 that US forces "will probably strike Iran hard again tonight." Xinhua also reported that on July 8, President Trump stated at the NATO summit that he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding has "ended." Wall Street CN noted that President Trump soon added that the escalation of tensions would subside quickly, seemingly adding fuel to the geopolitical fire before attempting to "put it out." Earlier, the US announced the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales and launched a new round of military strikes against Iran. However, an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory eased the geopolitical risk premium to some extent. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, stated: "The flow of oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz has basically ground to a halt, which speaks more to current risk perception than any statement from Washington or Tehran." (Wall Street CN)