Middle East Trade Chain for Aluminum Foil Disrupted by Geopolitical Conflicts, Down 0.74% YoY in Jan-Feb [SMM Analysis]

SMM, March 22, 2026:

According to customs data, China’s total aluminum foil exports (HS codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 214,800 mt in January-February 2026, down 0.74% YoY from 2025. Of this, exports were 121,100 mt in January, up 2% YoY, and 93,700 mt in February, down 4% YoY.

By trade mode, in January-February 2026, China exported about 39,000 mt of aluminum foil through processing trade with imported materials, accounting for about 18.2%; aluminum foil exports through processing trade with supplied materials were about 13,000 mt, accounting for 6.0%;

By country, the top five destinations for China’s aluminum foil exports in January-February 2026 were Thailand (23,200 mt, 10.8%), India (19,000 mt, 8.8%), Indonesia (17,200 mt, 8%), UAE (14,500 mt, 6.8%), and South Korea (1.34 mt, 6.2%), while all other countries accounted for a combined 59.4%.

Entering March, the outbreak of the Iran-Israel conflict and the sharp deterioration in the Strait of Hormuz situation became the most direct shocks affecting exports in March and beyond. According to an SMM survey, all of China’s aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil orders involving the Middle East have been suspended, with some in-transit orders returned or stranded at ports. The core issue lay in insurers’ refusal to cover war risks, leaving traders unable to fulfill contracts. Given the UAE’s role as a Middle East trade hub, with a 6.8% export share in January-February, aluminum foil orders bound for the Middle East or transshipped via the region are expected to directly drag down total exports for March. On the other hand, Southeast Asian markets, such as Thailand and Indonesia, continued to serve as the core growth engine for China’s aluminum foil exports, supported by rapidly advancing industrialization and consumption upgrading. Data for January-February showed that exports to Thailand and Indonesia accounted for a combined share of nearly 20%, and this trend was expected to continue in March and throughout the year, partially offsetting the risks from the loss of the Middle East market. Overall, China’s aluminum foil exports will face a severe test in March, with trade disruptions triggered by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East being the most prominent short-term negative variable, and total aluminum foil exports in March are expected to fall 5%-8% YoY.