Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip Exports Face Dual Pressure Despite 16.6% YoY Growth in Jan-Feb [SMM Analysis]

SMM, March 22, 2026:

According to customs data, China’s aluminum plate/sheet and strip (HS codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) exports totaled 509,300 mt in January-February 2026, up 16.65% YoY from 2025. Of this, January exports were 278,500 mt, up 16% YoY, and February exports were 230,800 mt, up 17% YoY.

By trade mode, in January-February 2026, China’s aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports through processing trade with imported materials were about 76,000 mt, accounting for 14.9%; exports through processing trade with supplied materials were about 9,600 mt, accounting for 1.9%;

By country, the top five destinations for China’s aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports in January-February 2026 were Mexico (66,300 mt, 13.0%), the US (50,000 mt, 9.8%), Vietnam (34,000 mt, 6.7%), South Korea (31,000 mt, 6.1%), and Indonesia (2 mt, 4.0%), with all other countries accounting for about 60.4% in total.

In January-February 2025, directly affected by China’s cancellation of the aluminum semis export tax rebate policy, outside China clients front-loaded demand, while the market was also in a transition period of negotiating a new pricing system, resulting in relatively low exports in the same period last year. On the other hand, as the Iran-Israel conflict escalated and the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated, trade flows in the region have now been effectively disrupted. According to the SMM survey, all orders involving the Middle East have now been fully suspended, and even some in-transit cargoes are facing returns or port detention because insurers have refused to cover war risks. The complete halt of these orders will directly and sharply hit exports in March and Q2, with an impact far exceeding seasonal fluctuations. Although industrialization in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia is still advancing, the incremental demand there will be unlikely to offset the loss of the Middle East market and the contraction in traditional markets in the short term. March aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports are expected to face downside risk and pull back under pressure, and the industry will enter a critical period of active destocking and market structure adjustment.