China's Copper Cathode Output Down 3.13% MoM in Feb, Expected to Surge in March

Published: Feb 28, 2026 18:08

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February SMM China copper cathode production decreased by 36,900 mt MoM, a decline of 3.13%, and was up 7.96% YoY.

February SMM China copper cathode production decreased by 36,900 mt MoM, a decline of 3.13%, and was up 7.96% YoY. Production in February largely met expectations, falling short by only 1,100 mt. With just 28 working days in the month and some enterprises facing statistical cycle issues, overall copper cathode production was seasonally low. From a maintenance perspective, some smelters that underwent maintenance in January gradually resumed production in February, while no other smelters were under maintenance during the month. In terms of raw materials, copper prices fell from their January highs, narrowing the price difference between primary metal and scrap. However, due to long-term contract deliveries of anode plates and other factors, there was ample supply of scrap anode plates, and the high prices in January ensured sufficient anode plate inventory for most smelters to use in February. Nevertheless, according to SMM communications, a small number of enterprises still reported tight anode plate procurement, affecting production. Sulphuric acid prices rose slightly in February compared to January, but gold and silver prices returned to more rational levels, leading to an increase in by-product revenue MoM. There were no significant production cuts due to raw material supply being tight in February. The operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in February was 83.94%.

March SMM China copper cathode expected production is set to increase by 52,800 mt MoM, a rise of 4.62%, and be up 6.51% YoY. The cumulative production growth for the first quarter (January-March) is 10.11%, with an increase of 322,800 mt. March copper cathode production is forecast to hit a record high, nearing 1.2 million mt. On one hand, the number of production days naturally increased in March. Although two smelters are scheduled for maintenance, involving 550,000 mt of crude refining capacity, it is expected to have no impact on copper cathode production. Additionally, smelters that underwent maintenance in January have fully recovered their output by March, further boosting production compared to January. Combined with new smelters continuing to ramp up, March copper cathode production is set to reach a historic high. However, concentrated maintenance among smelters is expected in April-May, which will likely lead to a decrease in copper cathode production.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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