Lithium Carbonate Market Weekly Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Showed a Continuous Upward Trend from 4.13-4.16 [SMM Weekly Review]

Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded contract price fluctuating upward from 166,500 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 176,000 yuan/mt, a weekly gain of approximately 5.7%, with open interest increasing significantly.

Market transactions showed a divergent pattern of "recovering upstream shipments and cautious downstream wait-and-see." On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, as prices continued to rise, willingness to sell on spot orders recovered notably, with some enterprises further raising their desired selling prices to 170,000-180,000 yuan/mt. On the downstream material plants side, purchase willingness remained weak, with psychological purchase price levels largely anchored below 160,000 yuan/mt. A few enterprises adopted post-pricing models, and overall activity was dominated by inventory drawdown. The gap in psychological price levels between buyers and sellers remained at 10,000-20,000 yuan/mt, with the market exhibiting a pattern of "active selling but sluggish buying."

The price rise this week was mainly driven by the following factors: first, on the supply side, since Zimbabwe banned lithium ore exports at the end of February, no lithium concentrates shipments have been made to date, with supply disruptions substantively affecting market sentiment; second, license renewals at some mines in Jiangxi may trigger supply disruptions; third, geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may lead to higher mining costs and transportation constraints for countries dependent on diesel imports.

Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to hold up well. Supply side, the recovery of Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports, the progress of mine license renewals in Jiangxi, and the transmission of Middle East geopolitical risks to mining costs warrant continued attention. Demand side, the actual boost of April's launch of new car models on auto sales, the growth in commercial vehicle penetration rate, and the progress of LFP plant capacity expansion are core variables to watch. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints and positive demand expectations, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to hold up well.