On the 11th of SMM10, it has been more than half a week since the return of the National Day. Within half a week, the price of electrolytic manganese has dropped from 17600 yuan / ton on the first trading day after the festival to 17250 yuan / ton yesterday (October 11). On the 4th, the price of electrolytic manganese fell by 350 yuan / ton. It fell by 2%.
Recent price of electrolytic manganese (main producing area): unit: yuan / ton
(data source: SMM)
Before the National Day holiday, the market atmosphere of electrolytic manganese is weak. On September 28, the spot price of electrolytic manganese is 17600 yuan / ton, while the futures price is between 17000 yuan and 17200 yuan / ton, the futures price is lower than the current price, and the difference between the current price and the current price is too large. After the National Day, the current price difference began to repair, futures prices stabilized, spot prices began to fall. According to SMM research, the current market trading price is basically in the vicinity of 17200 yuan / ton, coupled with the National Day holiday has just ended, spot transactions are less, futures prices are still maintained at about 17200 yuan / ton.
At present, the main factors that may affect the price drop are the news of the resumption of production in various electrolytic manganese plants. However, according to SMM, the original Ningxia Tianyuan and Songtao processing plants showed no signs of resuming production. Ningxia Tianyuan said its manganese plant will not resume production until the end of the year, while Songtao, there have been rumors that Songtao area electrolytic manganese plant may open in October, but there is still no sign of resuming production. It is understood that at present, Songtao area stop production of electrolytic manganese plant has not yet carried out the preparatory work, its shutdown state is completely consistent with the previous.
SMM estimates that after the 20th of this month, due to the mining end of the pollution situation is relatively small, the mine end manufacturers are more likely to resume production. Because of manganese slag and water pollution, the electrolytic manganese plant is less likely to resume production in a short period of time. If the Songtao electrolytic manganese plant does not restart, the supply of electrolytic manganese will not increase. Electrolytic manganese spot mainstream trading prices will continue to fluctuate at 16500 to 18000 yuan / ton price.
Generally speaking, the current market electrolytic manganese goods are still less, if the output has not increased, electrolytic manganese prices can be supported. According to SMM statistics, at present, the cost of electrolytic manganese manufacturers with their own mines is less than 14000 yuan per tonne. If they need to purchase raw materials and do not have their own power plants, the cost of electrolytic manganese manufacturers is about 15000 yuan per ton. Compared with the latest electrolytic manganese spot price of about 17000 yuan / ton, the profit is about 2000 yuan, although the profit has been compressed but still considerable.
Outlook for metal prices in 2019:
What will be the balance between supply and demand in the metal market next year, and how will the price go? Where is the demand growth point? What is the impact of environmental protection? What is the evolution of industry policy? Please pay attention to the "2018 China Nonferrous Metals Annual meeting and 2019 (SMM) Metal Price Forecast Conference" held in Shanghai on October 19, at which there will be famous macroeconomists, executives of well-known enterprises in various industries, and senior analysts of various metal varieties in SMM. For you a comprehensive analysis of the 2019 metal market.
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