[Australia's iron ore export earnings seen falling 34% by 2030-31 while volumes hold]
Australia's June outlook (2025-26 dollars) projects iron ore export earnings falling from about 75.8 billion USD (116.6 billion AUD) in 2025-26 to 50.2 billion USD (77.2 billion AUD) by 2030-31, a 34% fall against a 2% volume drop. China's January-July crude steel output fell 3.1% to 577 million tonnes while iron ore imports rose 5.9% to 736.8 million tonnes. Reuters said on 6 August that China Mineral Resources Group told some mills to halt September talks with Rio Tinto; Guinea's Simandou, targeting 120 million tonnes a year, broadens buyer options. The 1 billion AUD (650 million USD) Green Iron Investment Fund requires at least 1 million tonnes a year and first commercial sales by 31 March 2031; low-emission steelmaking favours high-grade ore, making Pilbara fines a strategic challenge.