H1 2026 Ex-China Zinc Concentrates Production Fell YoY! [SMM Analysis]

SMM News, May 26:

       With H1 2026 now complete, most major listed miners outside China have recently released their semi-annual reports. Based on disclosed production data, overseas zinc concentrate production releases in Q1 and Q2 were repeatedly disrupted by factors such as earthquakes, declining ore grades, floods and maintenance, resulting in a notable YoY decline in overseas zinc concentrate production in H1 2026. Details are as follows:

      SMM compiled production statistics for 17 major miners outside China. Based on disclosed production data, total zinc ore production of the 17 sampled enterprises in H1 2026 was 2.4578 million mt Zn, down 8.9% YoY, indicating a notable decline in overseas zinc concentrate production in H1 2026!

By miner:

• Boliden: By mine, the Tara mine's H1 2026 zinc concentrate production was 35,100 mt Zn, down 16% YoY; the Garpenberg mine in Sweden produced a total of 21,300 mt Zn in H1 2026, down 56% YoY, mainly because the March earthquake halted all production; ore bodies not directly affected by the earthquake have now successfully resumed production; The Boliden Area mine in Sweden produced a total of 18,700 mt Zn in H1 2026, down 16% YoY; the Zinkgruvan mine in Sweden produced a total of 34,400 mt Zn in H1 2026, down 21% YoY; the Somincor mine in Sweden produced a total of 53,900 mt Zn in H1 2026, basically flat YoY.
• Buenaventura: H1 2026 zinc ore production was 14,700 mt Zn. According to the report, the El Brocal mine in Peru had no zinc concentrate output in H1 2026. The Uchucchacua mine in Peru produced 14,000 mt Zn of zinc concentrates in H1 2026, up 15% YoY, in line with expectations; the Tambomayo mine in Peru produced a total of 800 mt Zn of zinc ore in H1 2026, down 46% YoY.
• MMG: H1 2026 zinc concentrate production was 105,800 mt Zn, basically flat YoY. Dugald River produced 87,200 mt Zn of zinc concentrates in H1 2026, up 3% YoY; the Rosebery mine produced 18,600 mt Zn of zinc concentrates in H1 2026, down 21% YoY, mainly reflecting lower zinc grades related to the mining sequence. Its 2026 production guidance is 170,000-180,000 mt Zn and 45,000-55,000 mt Zn, respectively.
• Newmont: H1 2026 zinc concentrate production was 102,000 mt Zn, down 19% YoY; its 2026 production guidance is 220,000 mt Zn.
• Nexa: H1 2026 zinc concentrate production totaled 158,700 mt Zn, up 13% YoY, mainly due to improved ore grades at its mines. Zinc production in Q2 2026 was 79,000 mt, basically in line with expectations. Incremental output from the recovery of operations at the Peruvian mine offset the impact of lower grades at the Aripuanã mine, while the commissioning of the fourth tailings filter press and the scheduled replacement of ball mill liners also had an impact on production.
• Pan American Silver Corp: H1 2026 zinc concentrate production totaled 30,800 mt Zn, up 16% YoY, and the miner's 2026 zinc production guidance is 58,500-62,500 mt Zn.
• Teck: Red Dog's H1 2026 zinc concentrate production was 218,200 mt Zn, down 14% YoY, mainly due to lower grades, in line with mining plan expectations. The mine's production guidance will continue to decline from 2027 to 2028.
• Vedanta: Zinc India, located in India, recorded H1 2026 zinc concentrate production of 583,000 mt Zn, basically flat YoY. Zinc International's zinc concentrate production declined, with the Gamsberg mine producing 87,000 mt Zn in H1 2026, up 1% YoY, while the BMM mine produced 10,000 mt Zn in H1 2026, down 52% YoY, mainly because the Deeps area is nearing the end of its mine life and output has declined.
• Glencore: full-year self-produced zinc production in H1 2026 was 365,600 mt Zn, down 21% YoY. Its 2026 production guidance was lowered to 700,000-740,000 mt Zn.
• Antamina: H1 2026 zinc concentrate production was 116,600 mt Zn, down 50% YoY. Based on the production guidance, the mine's zinc concentrate output in 2026 is expected to decline to around 240,000-280,000 mt Zn, and the 2027 production guidance continues to decline to around 150,000-200,000 mt Zn.

For the full year,

       H1 2026, zinc concentrate production outside China declined significantly, but some new capacity in China continued to ramp up production; for 2026, SMM expects global zinc concentrate production to increase by about 70,000 mt in metal content. For the ore market outside China in H2, the Romina zinc concentrate project in Peru began production in Q2 and is expected to continue to release output in H2; the Kipushi mine continues to ramp up production according to its production plan; and the Aljustrel mine in Portugal maintains production operations. However, at the same time, mines such as Antamina and Red Dog will still be affected by lower ore grades, the impact of the Garpenberg earthquake has not yet been fully resolved, and the overall decline from mines outside China may be more pronounced.

(The above information is based on market information collection and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team, and is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)