After contract rollover, weak demand weighs on Shanghai spot copper premiums [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jun 16, 2026 13:10

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

SMM reported on June 16:

In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract showed a pattern of multiple declines followed by a rebound. The opening price was 105,210 yuan/mt. After opening, prices quickly surged, rising to 104,510 yuan/mt before edging down to 104,260 yuan/mt, where they stabilized and rebounded, climbing to 104,730 yuan/mt. Subsequently, prices edged lower before rising again, reaching a high of 105,020 yuan/mt. By the close, prices had edged down, with a closing price of 104,800 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread ranged from a Contango of 60 yuan/mt to a Backwardation of 20 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 270 yuan/mt to a loss of 180 yuan/mt.

During the day, selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.64, down 0.05 MoM, while buying sentiment was 2.56, down 0.02 MoM. Historical data can be found in the database. At the start of early trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper against the 2607 contract at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt. Among them, JCC, Lufang, and Xiangguang quoted at premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt, while Zhongtiaoshan PC, Dajiang PC, Zhongjin, Tiefeng, Dajiang HS, and Zijin quoted at premiums of 10-20 yuan/mt. Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng quoted at an EXW premium of 30 yuan/mt. High-quality copper like Jinchuan (plate) and Jintun (plate) was quoted at premiums of 60-70 yuan/mt. In the second session, trading was sluggish, and suppliers slightly lowered their quotes. Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, while Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, and Zijin quoted at discounts of 20-10 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper supplies were scarce, with only some BMK and Esox available, quoted at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt.

Today marked the first trading day after the contract rollover, with the spot market formally pricing against the 2607 contract. Overall trading in Shanghai was sluggish. Suppliers quoted premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt in early trading, but follow-through was insufficient. In the second session, they continuously cut quotes to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt, where a small volume of transactions was seen. This reflected limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand and a lack of willingness to chase higher prices. On the regional front, Changzhou saw moderate transactions at spot premiums of 10-20 yuan/mt due to tight available supply, creating a price spread with the Shanghai market. This may subsequently attract some east China supplies to flow across regions, providing marginal support to the discount in the Shanghai market. On balance, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and regional supply divergence, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to show a small discount tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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